Post ManU and 2 transfer days left – what do Forest need?
So I am sure all Forest fans of sound mind did not reasonably expect Forest to win over two legs against Manchester United (only 1 loss over the last 12 games in the league, with 8 wins). I was telling all those around me before the game I wanted either a win/draw or a clear loss. Well we got one of those!
The idea was there is no point going into the second leg with the full first team and put in maximum effort, throwing their bodies on the line with Leeds at home only 4 days later, unless we had a good chance of making the final. That Leeds game is a must win (see my blog on Who will be relegated from the Premiership?) in Forest’s bid for league survival. I am not sure any Forest fan would take winning the EFL cup if we also get relegated. So I hope Cooper fields a team that needs game time in the second leg, and rest / protect our key assets.
But also looming is the closure of the January transfer window in 2 days. The cup game provided a good amount of intel of what is needed and answers some important questions. So let’s see what we learnt:
Is Danilo going to lift the quality of the first XI?
One of the brightest aspects of the game for me was watching Danilo grow as a player after a week on the training ground. He was breaking up play and releasing very quick ball down the wings. He seems fairly assured with the ball at his feet, full of energy and I expect him to keep growing and be a valuable member of the midfield 3. It was him winning the ball and quickly releasing the play with a very positive ball to Gibbs-White that led to the disallowed goal. Also guess who was the only one steaming into the box (just like Yates does) when Johnson had burnt down the pitch and then didn’t square the ball.
Is Scarpa’s stamina increasing?
So Scarpa’s quality in creativity and ball striking is clear for all to see. Those around Palmeiras have been touting Scarpa as more talented than Richarlison, and we are already seeing many glimpses of that talent. Gary Neville seemed to be mid-blown by his technique for striking volleys. But he seemed to be running out of puff after half a game so far, and things were a little better in this game, but it seems getting 90 mins out him at that high level is still a little ways off. But I would still have him on for those 65-70 mins to be that creative spark. This might be key if the fears about Gibbs-White’s possible injury come true.
Are our fit central defenders good enough for the second half of the season?
So I have to start to say that Worrell, McKenna and Cook were nothing short of heroic last season and a key part of why we got promoted. But as I have spotted in my article about Forest’s needs when buying last summer, those 3 do not have the pace to be able to survive against the better attacking lines in the Premiership. Worrell actually looked like he was walking in slow motion when he and Freuler were burnt by Rashford at the start of the game for the first goal. They are brilliant at blocking, but this is not the first time this season they have been done easily for pace resulting in goals. This is why Niakhate was brought in and Boly as well. Niakhate is supposed to be closer to return that originally thought, but that is still probably at least a month away to be fully up to speed, so it is critical we get in a starting quality, pacy centre back before the window closes. That will give us 3 high quality players in that position and 3 back ups for the run in. Hopefully Worrell, and McKenna, can train hard to improve their speed of turning and first couple of steps.
Can Hennessey fill in for Henderson?
This is a tricky one as the standard of Manchester United is not the barometer of the games Forest need win to stay up. Analyses of Man U’s XG are quoted around 1.88-2 (an amazingly subjective statistic…..), with 6 shots on target. So not shocking but not brilliant, and the second goal should not have been palmed into the direction of Weghorst. Given Henderson is likely to return to Man U at the end of the season, and there are no guarantees he will not have further issues with his injury, it seems prudent if there is space in the 25 man squad to get in next season’s #1 keeper. This gives them time to bed in and also push Henderson for the #1 spot when he is back.
It is a wonderful problem to have if the club know something we don’t and Henderson wants to sign for us permanently and ManU are willing to sell him to us. If so, a loan in is a far better idea. But if not, we should get in that #1 keeper, with transparency this half a season is bedding in period. This is not as critical as the central defender, but advisable.
Aurier or Williams?
So Aurier has been given glowing reports in the media over the last run of games and he must be doing well to keep out Williams, who I have been a fan of and forms part of the new Forest DNA down the right hand flank that made Johnson and Forest so dangerous last season.
Just imagine, Williams gets the ball, pings it inside to Danilo, who one-two’s it back into space down the flank in front of him to run on to…blazes past a static opposition midfielder with the ball, another one-two with Gibbs-White and down to the final 3rd…. does the same with Johnson and is in place to cross or get in behind and cut it back in the box. Gibbs-White or Johnson always have the option to keep it and wreak havoc down the middle, to keep the opposition guessing. All at lightening speed, using the Cloughie sage advice that it is easier to run without the ball than with it.
I do understand that Aurier gives greater defensive stability and he can whip in a good cross. But against ManU he was often not to be seen back on the right when ManU broke (he was not in camera shot for the first goal on the right side of the box…..) and seemed very agitated for much of the game. Williams gives more dynamism and as soon as we sort out the central defence I think he should start. But we have 2 very good options that work for us on the right, as long as they both stay fit (as Biancone is young and out for the season)….. is not, the ever flexible, ultimate team player Colback will need to fill in from the bench. No, we do not need Spence back on loan, Williams needs pitch time. The better solution is the speedy quality centre back we need should be comfortable on the right as well.
Do we have enough quality and depth up front?
So the Man U game was very telling for me.
Gibbs-White is seriously class. He gave Casimero his worst game all season and that is some statement. He seems to always find space, it is very difficult to get the ball off of him, he sees amazing passes and can pull them off, even with the outside of his right boot. He can also breeze past players and has a good turn of acceleration and speed. He and Scarpa provide that spark of creativity. But how bad is the potential ankle injury from the game….. What this does tells us is that we need a serious plan B, which needs Lindgard or Scarpa to step up.
Johnson is really getting back to himself, demonstrated by burning the Man U defence for speed and agility on a number of occasions. That composure in front of goal needs to improve, but I am confident this will come. He seems to learn and adapt fairly quickly.
Surridge is back! Last season it was a joy to see him effortlessly arrive in the box from the left and meet the cross, curling his shot across the keeper into the bottom right hand corner of the goal. Yes, he should have held his run with no one near him, but I am sure Cooper will make sure this will be learned from. But the finishing is there at the highest level, and the last two weeks will have grown his confidence and Cooper’s confidence in him.
Dennis looks totally lacking confidence and/or is just not interested. His body language was not great, although not surprising when you read the manager thinks you are not giving him what he wants and you were the second most expensive signing of the summer. I hope he turns it around but he can’t be counted on. We need to work on the basis he is not part of the plan, but can be a backup for bench cover if we have an injury.
Lingard looked off it, but he is only just back from injury and likely not 100% yet. He has shown his quality just before he was injured, it will come back and we should count on him.
So with Awoniyi out for a decent chunk of the rest of the season, he has to be counted out and seen as a bonus if we get him for the run in. But Wood, although not really tested properly yet, is a known entity and should be relied upon.
So that gives us Johnson, Wood, Surridge, Gibbs-White and Lingard. Dennis a bench option. Push comes to shove, we could move Scarpa up to play in the No10 spot. So on paper we should be ok with 6-7 options for those 3 slots. But the fragility of Gibbs-White on show, Lingard coming back from injury, Awoniyi out for a decent while, fans might be worried. 1 extra option up front I think would not be disparaged by fans, but Lingard, Surridge and Woods need time for their individual reasons (and Awoniyi when back). We should hold fire unless a deal far too good appears last minute that will be better than the starting options we have at the moment, but should be a loan with Wood likely to be bought if we stay up via obligation.
Do we need any more midfielders?
During the game, Freuler did not overly convince but we need to remember this was a buoyant and rejuvenated Man U side. Scarpa and Danilo I have covered above. The ever changer-of-minds, fans player of the year Yates should be considered for the starting XI with these other 3 as well as Mangala, who is back from injury. Sadly Kouyate is in the same boat as Awoniyi. Colback is Mr. Dependable as already mentioned and good for a place on the bench, as is O’Brien who I am sure will improve with game time. That gives us 7 for 3 spots, with a mix of breaking up play, ball carrying (Yates is the 4th most fouled player in the league) and now creativity. No more midfielders are needed!
So how many spots are free for registration?
The summer transfer dealings fitted a full 25 player registration very well and did not keep anyone out that was in Copper’s plans. It is key not to add players that will result in able players from that 25 to be displaced if they are still at the club as this could very well start to put cracks in a wonderful team spirit. Bade had his loan terminated and Baincone will not be fit for the rest of the season with this ACL injury. Kouyate and Awoniyi hopefully will both be back in time for the run in, so their spaces should be freed up. Smith is reported to be fantastic for the dressing room, so the power of that 25th spot with him should not be underestimated. Richards should be back in time to be able to feature for us this season.
So what business do we need to do?
So the two spots really need to be that speedy centre back who can play on the right and our #1 keeper for next season (or a top rated keeper on loan).
It is rumoured Toffolo will be allowed to leave on loan for more game time if he wishes, and Dennis may be sold if there are any last minute offers. If so, we should not just fill the extra spots for the sake of it.
Toffolo – Richards should be back in training in the next couple weeks, as should Niakhate who can fill in on the left if needed. So I would loan a left back as an understudy to Lodi (and Richards when back), but who can operate on the right side as well, in case something happens to either Williams or Aurier. A squad level player.
Dennis – it is unlikely Dennis goes, but if he does, a forward player coming in should be on loan so there are not long term promises of game time vs our young forwards that need game time to develop. This includes Awoniyi when he is back. As mentioned before, also bear in mind Woods is likely to be bought under obligation next season if we stay up.
Parting thoughts: Forest should not be down-hearted by the Man U result and very likely going out of the EFL Cup. A run to the semi finals has been great for the fans and the real focus should be the improvement and upward trajectory in the league, and what looks like some shrewd business already in the January window.
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