Who will be relegated from the Premiership?
Every season, who is getting relegated is hot debate from long before May, and the media, and mates down the pub, are already churning out predictions for this season.
My predictions are based on factors known: the league table now, form and the ‘fixture factor’. Each team is recruiting in Jan. What can’t be predicted are injuries and suspensions, top teams ‘not turning up’ or having short terms issues, nor how well January signings will perform.
This is an odd season so far the mid-point. No team is already adrift, with 3 points from 13th to 20th. But Liverpool and Chelsea are 9th and 10th. Villa with top 4 form since Emery has come in are now part of the top half conversation, only 5 points off Europe. So this is really now 11 teams fighting for Europe and 9 teams fighting not to be relegated, from Palace down.
Teams have x wins needed to reach circa 36 points and get the odd draw elsewhere should be safe. Bottom 9 match up wins rob 3 vital points from each others’ winnable matches. These matches at home are gold dust. Bottom 9 teams have won 3-6 games all 1st half of the season.
Home form is also key for the other games against the top half, as it is more likely to nick a point (or more) when playing them at home, so you really want your stadium to be a fortress.
My analysis shows Bournemouth and Everton are likely to be the bottom 2. They each might have an x-factor of a new manager bounce in the case of Everton when Lampard’s replacement is selected, or if O’Neill is sacked.
See below for who is likely to be scrapping to the wire to avoid 18th spot. Just to add the drama, the final day of the season has Palace vs Forest, Leicester vs West Ham and Everton vs Bournemouth.
Palace: 4 wins needed. vs bottom9: 8 games, 5 at home. Key issue is none until April, when they are likely to be around the drop zone. Then in April they have Everton(h) Wolves (a) West Ham (h) all in 8 days. Mental strength and level heads are key for them. They should be ok with Viera managing. Just win their home games when they come late in the season. Outcome: eventually safe
Forest: 5 wins needed. vs bottom9: 6 games, 4 at home. Games spaced and more earlier, get points on the board mentally. Less games that others and poor goal difference but points already on the board. The all-new team is also gelling more post winter break and have comfortably the best recent form of the bottom9 (over 4, 6 and 8 last games) and are now strong at home (2W, 2D in last 4). Outcome: safe, just
Leicester: 6 wins needed. vs bottom9: 7 games, 4 at home. 1 only until April, 1st at home 8 Apr when likely in the drop zone. Larger mental battle than Palace as 6 points worse off. Also Wolves(h) Leeds(a) Everton(h) all in 8 days in April. They will be under pressure and they are only 1 of three of these teams that don’t have 3 wins or more at home yet (2 wins). Outcome: in the mix for 18th
Leeds: 6 wins needed. vs bottom9: 8 games, 3 at home. Good spacing and early key games although mostly away to nick draws, mentally getting points on the board and build confidence. Best volume of games vs bottom9, equal with Palace. Their away form is poor, so they may not take full advantage. Outcome: safe, just
West Ham: 6 wins needed. vs bottom9: 6 games, 3 at home. Only Forest until April, key to win this at home or in serious trouble. Gap to key games, volume of these and how many at home all working against them, as their home form is far better than away. With Palace and Forest, only these 3 teams have 4 wins at home so far. But they, along with Leicester, Bournemouth and Southampton, have already lost 7 away. Outcome: in the mix for 18th
Wolves: 6 wins needed. vs bottom9: 7 games, 4 at home. Good spacing of games and good number at home early, points on the board for confidence. Just enough key games and just enough at home, although a poor goal difference. Lopetegui has now had the winter break with the team, now an uptick in form. Outcome: safe, just
Bournemouth: 6 wins needed. vs bottom9: 7 games, 2 at home. Like West Ham, only Wolves until April, but it’s away. Also like Palace and Leicester, they also have West Ham (h) Southampton(a) Leeds (h) in 8 days in April, their only home games. Further they have poor goal difference. O’Neill’s interim manager form has not translated to the permanent role. It is all stacked against them. The only sliver of light is that the new owner has money to spend and now a transfer window open. Outcome: Bottom two
Everton: 7 wins needed. vs bottom9: 7 games, 2 at home. A good spacing of games, but the reality is they only have 2 home games and poor away winning form, as draws will not be enough (1W, 4D). Even home form can’t be leaned upon, with only 2 wins at home so far this season. Huge unrest at the club will not help their cause, although they may get a new manager bounce with Lampard’s replacement being imminent Outcome: Bottom two
Southampton: 7 wins needed. vs bottom9: 7 games, 4 at home. A good spacing of games, and enough in volume and at home, but they are chasing the rest, with poor goal difference. Like Wolves, Jones has now had the winter break with the team. Some significant wins since and belief is growing around the club. But they need to sort out their home form, with only 1 win at home so far this season. Outcome: in the mix for 18th
So I reckon, from what we know now, that Everton and Bournemouth are likely to be bottom of the pile, with the last relegation spot being fought out to the bitter end by Leicester, West Ham and Southampton. But there will be twists and turns in the road (not least the January transfer window), so hold on for one of the most tightly and widely fought relegation battles in a good few years, with very possibly a nail-biting last day of the season for more than 2 clubs.
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