Are Chelsea ‘doing a Forest’ in the transfer market? How and why are they spending so much?
New owner Todd Boehly is in, and he and his co-investors are splashing the cash. There was an instant impact in the summer transfer market, with 8 players coming in for a total of £278m (net £228m after player sales). The January window showed no sight of abatement with a further 8 players coming in for £323m.
Media have already started to draw comparisons to Forest’s summer of spending (see our previous article Forest on Fire, or just burning cash? ) but what is going on at Chelsea, and is it hugely different from what has happened in the past at the club?
So what did Boehly and Co inherit?
Chelsea were kings of world club football only a year ago, having won the Champions League, FIFA Club World Cup and UEFA Super Cup in 2021.
But reality was that the team was in need of an overhaul despite those lofty heights only recently.
When looking for that balance of a squad, and especially to give Potter flexibility in the formations he can put out as he finds his feet (and he seems to use this flexibility a lot so far…), you are looking for 2 keepers, 2 left backs, 2 right backs, 6 centre backs, 6 central midfielders, 4 attacking forwards and 2 strikers. Also the key is getting in players that have a bit of flexibility in positions they can play.
Goalkeepers
All ok.
Arrizabalaga is settling down and fighting with Mendy for the #1 spot. Bettinelli as cover.
Central Defenders
2 of the 3 first string central defenders wanted out (Rudiger and Christensen) and left at the end of the season, leaving only Silva. Although miraculously he is still getting better with age like a fine wine, evidenced with another 1 year contract extension, the reality is he is 38 years old and there needed to be a succession plan and transfer of golden knowledge asap.
Chalobah is coming through with promise, but is still a little too green to be first string (like the panic in my heart when a high ball comes over the top near his head) but good enough for the bench. He can also cover on the right.
The position was a serious problem and lots of reinforcement was needed. Up to 4 new centre backs could be justified with 2 being starting XI level, especially if playing 3 at the back in a wing back system.
Full Backs / Wing Backs
Chilwell and James are well known to be the key to Chelsea’s threat, but they only managed 4 league starts together last season due to injuries. In those 4 games, the aggregate score was 14-1.
Captain Azpilicueta is ever dependable. It is amazing, at 33 years old, he does not stop running up and down the length of the pitch, but that cannot carry on like that forever. He has been used as a centre back.
Sarr was back last season from his Porto loan and was an option on the left as well as in the centre. But he went back out on loan (to Monaco) at the end of the season and Alonso left at the start of September as this season kicked off. Other options available were not up to the grade.
So at a minimum the left side was in need of an addition. I am not questioning yet the validity of loaning Sarr out again vs buying in cover, that comes later.
Midfielders
Kante, in many fans’ eyes, is still Chelsea’s MVP. But he is not getting any younger and playing every game is no longer an option (26 appearances last season, far fewer so far this season). Another urgent succession plan was needed here.
Ross Barkley really never seemed to live up to his promise. Mount and Kovacic were key starters and Gallagher has been given a chance this season more and more. Note that I would have Mount in midfield, if there was sufficient strength up front.
Loftus Cheek has been seen as a bench level player. I see his dynamism and direct drive as what is needed in the starting team with painfully slow ball usually, it seems he is not a starter.
Now talking of painfully slow ball…..I would take Jorginho off the keep list. All around me in the stands over the last 18 months at Stamford Bridge know my feelings well. Not only is he a waste of a starting space in the team, he actually is negative value on the pitch unless you are trying to close out a game you are winning. He holds the ball, slows it down, passes it sideways or backwards, adds in three 2 yard passes back and forth. It is like is paid bonuses based on how much time he spends on the ball and how many times he touches it. If anyone has seen Moneyball, the only solution in my eyes was to sell him, so he can’t be started!
The option to buy Saul, who was on a season's loan, was sensibly not taken up. He was played, but it most certainly was not a case of ‘Better Call Saul’ off the bench. Kenedy was not included in the 25 man squad list.
So taking either my musings or what management seemed to feel, there were either 5 or 6 midfielders in the squad that should be kept. So new faces should be to improve what was in place, and needing to move replaced players on. But a youth holding player to take the torch on from Kante was a priority.
Attacking Forwards and Strikers
This is a debatable area as there are a good few options, but many that have fallen into the Chelsea loan system (more on this later). Havertz, Pulisic and Ziyech were staying around, but Werner was sold on, and the hugely underwhelming Lukaku (a whole separate debate can be had on if this is his or Chelsea’s fault) and Hudson-Odoi were loaned out (fair enough if he is not getting enough game time). Abraham can’t be bought back yet from Roma until the end of this season (summer of 2023).
So really, 3 forward players were needed, but also recognising that none of the 3 staying were true No.9’s. However the pool of players on loan was tapped and Broja was brought back into the first team. He was the only true striker of the 4 forward players, but at 21 years old he was not the primary striking solution. So 2 more were needed with a starting striker ideally as one of them. In addition, Havertz was still very young and going missing in games (but does turn up it seemed for the huge matches). Pulisic in my view is not up to the grade (he can dribble and puts in a shift, but is not at the required standard in front of goal). Ziyech is not used as a starter regularly and although very talented, seems disinterested during periods of play (but credit where credit is due, he seems to be tracking back more this season and putting in more yards on the pitch). So really, a major refresh of the front line was needed.
So what is the summary of what was needed last summer as part of Boehly & Co’s first tilt at the transfer market:
3 or 4 centre backs
1 left / wing back and maybe cover for injuries on both flanks (ideally someone who can operate on both flanks)
A young holding midfielder (and a senior player if Jorginho could be moved on!)
3 forward players, one being an experienced No.9 (4 if Pulisic could be moved on!)
So much like the Forest situation, there was a need for a large number of bodies (not on the same scale though as Forest who needed circa 20 players, and Chelsea needing about half that), albeit that some players were jettisoned though choice on loan to create this need for new players.
With it being Chelsea and the standards they are looking to keep, the additions needed to be top starting XI quality, especially for 2 central defenders, a forward, a No.9 and a left back given Chilwell’s history with injuries. And the spend to bring in this quality would need to be larger player for player than what Forest were bringing in to stay up in the Premiership.
Chelsea’s loan approach
At the start of this New Year, Chelsea had 20 players out on loan. The model seems to be to give their fantastic youth productions or purchases the time to get real game time to develop further and then if they make the grade, then make the first team.
Players like James (1 year on loan), Mount (2 years), Christensen (2 years), Gallagher (3 years), Loftus-Cheek (1 year after breakthrough), Hudson-Odoi, Gilmour (1 year after breakthrough) and Ake (2.5 years) are good examples that got a shot at the first team having been through the youth system and in most cases also went out on loan to get that chance (29 youth players in the last 10 years have made the first team). Sadly many never make the grade.
But many would recognise this as the popular Championship Manager / Football Manager model. Buy / develop lots of promising youth players, and if a few make the grade give them a season in the first team to pump up their value and then sell them, or keep them if they are likely to be a superstar. With Abramovich, there was the money to apply this methodology (and it is the old adage it takes money to make money) through the purchases, the standard of the academy and top quality staff.
The loan system was also used as the graveyard for players bought directly for the first team squad that did not live up to promise. So loan them out until they perform better elsewhere and sell them when their price rebounds.
For me though, this was also a very clever FFP 'loophole’ approach allowing for a stock of players to be on the books and they can then sell off players to generate income in any year when the three year FFP aggregated expenses vs income calculation is too close to the limit.
Now, although Abramovich is gone, it seems that Boehly & Co are onto a new way of circumnavigating the design principles of FFP via loopholes. But more on that later!
Who came in during the summer?
So with the opening of the summer transfer window, the money started flowing. 8 players ended up coming in, so just off the face of it, this just might cover what they needed.
Keeper (none needed): Slonina (£8m, 18 years old)
Central defenders (2 starters, 3 or 4 total needed): Fofana (£72m, now 22 years old) and Koulibaly (£34m, 31 years old)
Left back (1 starting quality needed): Cucurella (£58m, 24 years old)
Midfielders (1 young needed): Chukwuemeka (£16m, now 19 years old) and Zakaria (loan, now 26 years old)
Forward (2 needed): Sterling (£50m, now 28 years old)
Striker (1 starter needed): Aubameyang (£11m, 33 years old)
So it looked like over the summer that it would be a flat back 4 if there were any injuries, and with Fofana injured nearly as soon as he arrived, this sealed a flat back 4. With Chalobah and Azpilicueta as backups, at least 1 more centre back would be needed in the January window.
The left back position was filled, as was the striker role. Signing two midfielders gives the option for Mount to be used further forward so this does in effect balance out the roles at this juncture. Zakaria on loan allowed Kante to share games, and Chukwuemeka then had time to develop.
So overall, other than at the back, it seemed that Chelsea were patched up again with enough players just about in each spot. This was not the crazy spending in terms of numbers of players that many were saying. But a spend of £278m (net £228m), mostly in defence, was the most of any Premiership club, and at least double the spend of all other clubs other than Manchester United, West Ham and Forest last summer.
So the new owners had very loudly and proudly announced their arrival in the Premiership. Half the players signed were 24 and under, but the key was also bringing in players that could hit the ground running as well as looking to the future.
Have the transfers worked and have any other players emerged?
Looking at the signings, Slonina was not intended to be first team, and Chukwuemeka was one to be added into the team through development. Fofana was not 100% fit when he arrived (he looked very off the pace for one of the quickest defenders around) and has been injured pretty much from the start. But Rodgers saw the potential in him to be one of the best in the world, so should be a good buy.
Zakaria has done very well when played and Sterling has had good patches before getting injured, and his class is not in doubt.
Cucurella has now been reunited with his former Brighton manager in Potter, but for some reason the level he was playing at when at Brighton seems not to be translating into the Chelsea team. What is clear is that he is not a wing back, so is not a direct sub for Chilwell (he will just run up the wing and as soon as he gets to an opposition player, he will turn inside and pass sideways or backwards). The poor level of Cucurella has resulted in youth player Hall being brought into the first team to play on the left in the last few games. He is very green, especially in defence, but has shown to have bags of potential, especially going forward. He looks like a squad player for even this season if Chelsea continue to bring through their youth.
Aubameyang at no point has looked like the player he was at Arsenal, or even at Barcelona. It might be fitness, attitude, adjustment, age or a combination of these factors. But what is clear is that he has fallen foul to the curse of the Chelsea No.9 and is not what is needed to get Chelsea up and running again.
Injuries ravaging the team
Given that we have identified that the squad post summer signings just about had enough cover at each position, the list of injuries so far this season has decimated the first team, and over half the starting XI:
Starters out: Mendy (unknown return from fractured finger in Jan), James (hopefully back Feb), Chilwell (Feb), Fofana (Feb), Kante (March), Sterling (Feb)
Bench players that became starters with the above: Pulisic (March), Zakaria (Feb), Broja (whole season)
That is basically a whole very good starting team other than 1 central defender (already light in that position) and 1 midfielder. Also with Aubameyang not being up to it, Mount has been needed up front to even field a starting 3.
Given the volume of matches teams now have due to the winter break (plus Chelsea’s Champions League when back up and running), waiting until most of these players are back will mean top 4 will be truly out of sight. But as per the conundrum being faced by Liverpool (with their whole front line out other than Salah), just bringing in players that will fill the gap and be benched when the injured players are back does not work and causes huge squad problems. So if players are to be brought in, logically they need to be either a) better than what is already in the team or b) youth players that will develop into better than what is in the team. Realistically it can’t be all option b) to be competitive unless they are already at a very high level and have experience.
So what has just happened in the January transfer window?
It looks like Boehly & Co opted heavily for option b) and targeted huge potential young players. This was all part of the masterplan anyway it seems, and this is covered further down.
But before we look at who came in, let’s quickly look at who left in the window:
Jorginho left for Arsenal for £12m (personally, I am over the moon!)
Ziyech should have gone on loan to PSG and would have been in the overall plan for numbers
So just from what the fully fit coverage of the squad is, that means that Chelsea still needed:
1 or 2 central defenders
1 forward
1 striker
And this is who came in:
Fernandez (£105m, 22 years old, British transfer record) - midfielder
Mudryk (£88.5m, 22 years old) - forward
Badiashile (£35m, 21 years old) - central defender
Madueke (£29m, 20 years old) - forward
Gusto (£26.3m, 19 years old) - right back
David Fofana (£11m, 20 years old) - forward
Santos (£11m, 18 years old) - midfielder
Felix (loan, 23 years old) - forward
Central defence now has just about enough cover and will be better when Wesley Fofana is back and fit. Badiashile has been thrust into the starting line up and at first look seems like he is ready to be part of the first team and challenging for a starting place. Silva is staying for another year, so that gives 4 high quality central defenders with Silva, Wesley Fofana, Koulibaly and Badiashile, with Chalobah and Azpilicueta as back ups. Badiashile and Chalobah can learn their craft from arguably the best defender on the planet.
Fullbacks look set, with Gusto being the successor to Azpilicueta to challenge James for the spot on the right. The left side is also covered with Hall lined up to hopefully eventually supersede Cucurella (sell him at that stage).
Midfield looks now well, but not over, stocked with a good succession in place. Kante has Zakaria to share the holding role this season and they have Santos as an understudy from next season (hopefully Zakaria is bought after his loan as he looks very good). British record signing Fernandes adds youthful but experienced class into an already young and talented midfield of Mount and Gallagher, as well as Kovacic. Chukwuemka has time to develop (but already looks very useful). Kovacic and Kante have that developmental role, as Silva does in central defence.
The forward line eventually looks like it has promise, and also a bright future. When Sterling is fit, he has Felix for competition for the No.9 spot this season, and Broja when back next season can replace the challenge from Felix when he returns to Atletico Madrid. But in the meantime, Felix looks like a really tricky player that looks class if he can find some confidence (and lift the ball off the ground when shooting!). One player not lacking confidence and looked world class on his first appearance was Mudryk. He fits the mould of Boehly & Co buying the best young talent in the world. Havertz is still developing and Pulisic provides backup from the bench as does Ziyech still as he did not move to PSG. Madueke and David Fofana have time to develop, as does Hutchinson (who has looked very green when thrust on as a sub with all the injuries). There is plenty of senior experience (top World Cup level) for the development of Broja, Madueke and David Fofana.
So eventually, the first team has enough cover in all the positions when there is a fit first team, but also has class youth that can cover the starting XI already. Mudryk, Fernandez and Felix would hope to keep a starting place.. Badiashile would want to challenge for a starting place, especially if playing 3 central defenders. That is up to 4 of the 8 players brought in during January that should lift the standard of the starting XI even from the additions from the summer. Any of the forwards that start hitting goals will stay in the starting line up. Many of these players will be on the pitch over the next month or so as many of the old starting XI come back to fitness. There are also a good set of very talented young players that would be looking at making the team in a couple years.
Why all the outrage?
Further to the £278m spent in the summer, this January window has seen £323m more spent. This equates to over half of the Premiership’s total spending over the summer and January. This is also more than all of the primary European top divisions' total spend put together over these two windows. What this really highlights is the huge gulf in the power of the Premiership in terms of finances, status and allure, which I will discuss separately.
Now most people are querying how Chelsea can afford to spend all this money and still be within FFP rules. Remember that the FFP rules are an aggregated set of expenses vs revenue over a 3 year period. The key that Boehly & Co very cleverly exploited (totally legal) is the accounting principles of booking the expenses. When a player is bought, the value of the expense is equally split over the length of the contract. So to minimise how much is booked as an expense each financial year, Chelsea opted to award contracts of 6 to 8 years for their very young purchases. This allows far less expenditure to be allocated to each financial year, but it also safeguards the value of the players as they will not be coming into the last year of their contracts until they really are into their prime. They have also negotiated wages over the full length of the contract. The risk is if the player is a flop or is not needed, and they can’t sell the player on, then they are on the hook for a huge period of paying wages. Given these young players have been mostly signed around 20-22 years old and are already showing huge talent, this reduces the risk of a bad investment.
Is more spending needed or have they future proofed?
There are not many players that need to retire or are over their peak over the next few years:
Kante has Santos as his successor, with Zakaria hopefully also signed long term
Silva has 3 young very promising defenders coming through to succeed him in Wesley Fofana, Badiashile and Chalobah
Azpilicueta has Gusto as an understudy, but with James still first choice and young
Aubameyang is already not in my considerations above, with a front line mixed with youth and experience
So unless they are uplifting the squad further, there will not be transfer windows like this again in a hurry. This was how to get a squad overhauled in 2 transfer windows rather than over more like 2 to 3 years, which is more common. This is indeed what Forest have done, albeit with different targets in mind.
Will the huge investment work?
Abramovich arrived in 2003 and spent over £2bn during his time at Chelsea, much to the envy (and many other emotions…) of other Premiership clubs. It certainly contributed (at the least) to FFP rules being brought in in 2010, but it also brought about unparalleled success to Chelsea. Every trophy that could be won was won under his ownership: 5 Premiership titles, 5 FA Cups, 3 League Cups, 2 Champions Leagues, 2 Europa Leagues, 2 Community Shields, 1 Club World Cup and 1 UEFA Super Cup. This was more than any other club during his tenure.
Boehly & Co are thinking even larger than Abramovich and wanting to kick on from his amazing work. The goal is to be the largest club in the world and have a network of affiliated clubs. They need to start somewhere and it looks like we are back to Chelsea being the envy of all other clubs in England, but this time also in Europe. But just as Abramovich had a regulatory impact, it seems UEFA have decided to react to Boely & Co’s huge spending strategy by tightening up the amortisation rules for player purchases under FFP rules to be a maximum of 5 years. This oddly works in Chelsea’s favour as a copycat operation cannot be done in exactly the same extreme manner.
The Boehly & Co model has taken the old model and just fast-forwarded it by bringing in the players a few years later in their development, between 18 and 22 years old. This also reduces the risk that the players do not progress as expected. What should be watched is any future purchases if they are all this age, as this will likely hugely restrict the possibility of progression from the youth academy for the home grown players. But given they are after a multi-club model, this may very well offer a global network to allow these youth players to get greater security of development via first team football elsewhere, where Chelsea will have more control over how much these players start for the teams they are loaned to under their network. That could in turn supercharge the academy to attract the best youth, even more than it does already.
Success being instantaneous is no easy feat, and Potter will need to find the same skills Cooper has been showing at Forest to get them all gelling as a team, both on and off the pitch. Forest are looking to stay up, Chelsea are looking to make top 4, but both have a hugely changed squad to bed in and make work in a short period of time.
Failure to be in the Champions League next season could cost Chelsea north of £50m. Has qualification been baked into the FFP calculations that Boehly and Co have been making to stay on the right side of the line next year? Manchester United in 4th place are 10 points ahead of Chelsea, and with Newcastle, Manchester City and Arsenal on cracking form, is Potter up to the challenge?
It might be Boehly & Co have factored in a write off of this season, but what is not in question is they are looking for a title winning run in the league next year with what is the foundations of a massively talented young squad that should give Chelsea a top side in Europe for years to come.
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