So after the usual nerve-jangling Forest season, this season more so than most, how of each of the members of the senior men's squad performed, and who is likely up for the chop?
Each player has a report card, my thoughts on their transfer status, and then a reflection at the bottom about sensible transfer activity for the positions in the article.
But as my mantra goes, the answer is in data! So I have pulled relevant data statistics from fbref.com (fed by Opta data) to analyse player performance in key areas.
With the whole squad to review, this article covers the Forwards. For the other positions, please see (links will be updated as articles are published):
Forwards
For this analysis, Alex Mighten has been excluded with only 1/10th of a game under his belt. But Gustavo Scarpa has been included, as he did clock up the equivalent of 2 full games and was highly involved in those games which will give us an idea of what he could offer when fully fit.
When it comes to forwards, many would think analysis should be easy: how many goals have they scored and how many assists have they notched up? But the value of a forward does not just stop there as they may be highly industrious creating chances but are not the one putting in the final ball or tapping in the goal. Nor does it explain the value of creating opportunities if the finish is scuffed, or how efficient is a striker with their chances.
As such, we will delve into a good few characteristics to find out more. But again, as we have a good few things to look at, if detailed data analysis is not for you, please do skip to the summary after each of the four data analysis sections, where you can get the overview and then the forward report cards!
The forwards are not as diverse a bunch as the midfielders but still have differing roles. So I have broken down the variances into 4 sections for groups of skills the varying roles would have:
Dribbling
Passing
Shooting
Creating goals and assists
The colour rating scheme I have used is a comparison between the Forest players (gold for leading the stat, then green, amber and red as expected). It does not reflect how well that stat compares to the overall Premiership standard. That analysis is done in the overall squad en-of-season report.
Dribbling
- TakeOn - the average number of defenders successfully dribbled past per 90 mins
- TakeOn% - the average success rate of dribbling past a defender taken on
- CPA - the number of times the ball was dribbled into the opponent's box per 90 mins
- Dispossess - the average number of times per 90 mins the ball is lost after being tackled by the opposition
| TakeOn | TakeOn% | CPA | Dispossess |
Johnson | 2.7 | 38% | 1.3 | 0.8 |
Surridge | 1.4 | 40% | 0.3 | 1.1 |
Awoniyi | 1.4 | 32% | 0.6 | 1.9 |
Gibbs-White | 2.9 | 49% | 0.6 | 1.3 |
Dennis | 6.6 | 34% | 1 | 3.1 |
Lingard | 1 | 60% | 0 | 1 |
Wood | 0.5 | 0% | 0 | 1.5 |
Scarpa | 2 | 25% | 0 | 0 |
Data insights: The leader in this section is Johnson. He has the best rate of dribbling into the box, 3rd at the rate of taking on defenders and other than Scarpa, is the best at protecting the ball (being dispossessed less than once a game in his role is fantastic). He can work on being more successful at beating defenders.
Second is Gibbs-White who is 2nd at taking on defenders, 2nd with success in that, and very good at protecting the ball (like Johnson, a dispossession rate of 1.3 is very good given how he flies through midfield at high speed). The highlight reels show Gibbs-White playing balls into the strikers, so his lower rate of dribbling into the box (still 4th=) is not surprising.
Third is Dennis and it is an interesting set of data that backs up what is seen when watching games. He loves running at defences (he takes on defenders a staggering 6.6 times on average per game, which is 5th in all of the Premiership), but he has his head down and usually takes one too many touches and loses possession. He leads at this taking on defenders, at more than double the rate of Johnson and Gibbs-White, and gets into the box once per game (2nd). But he is successful in beating the defender 1 in 3 attempts (5th) and loses possession 3.1 times per game (by far the worst of all the forwards). In a low-possession team, these stats are not overly helpful for the team, but they can make things happen. His performance is unpredictable.
Scarpa and Lingard come in next. Scarpa is 4th on taking on defenders but is only successful 1 in 4 times, but amazingly he has not been dispossessed in those efforts or at any other time in his 2 games. Lingard only takes on a defender once a game (only Wood has a lower rate) but he has the best success rate by a margin (60%). He protects the ball well for a forward, losing it only once per game. Neither Lingard nor Scarpa has dribbled into the opposition box all season. Given Lingard played 10.2 games, this is highly disappointing. For Scarpa, a look at the shooting section will explain this!
Awoniyi and Surridge are next, neither of them does very well at dribbling in an attacking sense, both taking on defenders 1.4 times a game (5th=), Surridge is marginally better at succeeding in that (Surridge at 40% is 3rd), but Awiniyi dribbles into the box at twice the rate of Surridge (both comfortably less than once a game). Awoniyi is 7th at being dispossessed, whereas Surridge is better (4th).
Dribbling is not Wood's strong suit, but that is not a surprise given his role. He is last in each characteristic other than protecting the ball. However, given a large part of his role is to hold the ball up and offload it, being dispossessed 1.5 times a game is only less frequent than Awoniyi (which might then be a by-product of that holding-up role).
Passing
- PPA - the average number of completed passes into the opposition box per 90 mins
- CrsPA - the average number of completed crosses into the opposition box per 90 mins
- KeyPass - the average number of passes that directly lead to a shot per 90 mins (chance creation)
- Micontrol - the average number of times per 90 mins attempting to control the ball failed
| PPA | CrsPA | KeyPass | Miscontrol |
Johnson | 0.6 | 0.18 | 0.9 | 2.3 |
Surridge | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.6 |
Awoniyi | 0.1 | 0 | 0.6 | 4.4 |
Gibbs-White | 1.2 | 0.15 | 2 | 2.8 |
Dennis | 0.5 | 0.25 | 0.9 | 4 |
Lingard | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
Wood | 0.5 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.7 |
Scarpa | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Data insights: The clear leader in this section is Gibbs-White. He leads in passing successfully into the opposition's box and passes that lead to shots. Given Forest play without much possession, Gibbs-White's stats for these are not expected to be up with the best for the Premiership. His rates are a little over half that of Premiership leader De Bruyne, which if you think ManC have usually double the possession Forest have in games, these stats indicate quality use of the ball. Crossing into the box is not a primary function for the forwards at Forest given that they did not usually play with forward wingers, but other than Dennis, Gibbs-White is still up the top when it comes to successful crosses into the box. His miscontrolling is 5th best for the Forest forwards, but he is doing things at such a pace, this is actually not too bad.
Next up is Lingard, and that might be in line with the expected role, but not always the perceived level of performance from him. His rate of creative successful passing across the board is about half that of Gibbs-White, which shows the gap between them. But Lingard controls the ball better than any of the others, bar Scarpa in his 2 games.
Johnson and Dennis are about even for the next in line in this section. They both are producing a key pass (results in a shot) just under once a game, they are successfully passing into the box once every two games (or slightly better for Johnson). Dennis is the leader for the forwards in terms of successful crossing (although that is still just 1 in four games), but Johnson has far better control over the ball (3rd in lowest miscontrols vs Dennis being 7th).
Of the big forwards, Wood does a better job than Awoniyi at creating passing, and the two are the next up. Both have a key pass as a little more than every other game, but it seems Awoniyi sits further up the pitch compared to Wood as Wood still has a pass into the box every other game, whereas Awoniyi is 1 in 10 games. As expected, neither crosses the ball, but Wood has better control of the ball (4th best vs Awoniyi who is last).
Scarpa (with his 2 games), pips Surridge (with his 3.5 games), as the final two in this section. Neither of them has passed or crossed into the box. Each has 1 key pass in the season, but Scarpa did his in 2 games, to Surridge's 3.5 games. But Scarpa leads at controlling the ball, whereas Surridge is 6th.
Shooting
So Johnson and Gibbs-White have led at opportunity creating dribbling and passing respectively, but who leads at the art of shooting?
Analysing this is about not just the rate of shots, but the quality of shooting and success rate:
- Shots - the average number of shots at goal per 90 mins
- SoT% - the average percentage of shots on target over the season
- Goal/Shot - the ratio of the number of shots taken per goal scored over the season
- G-XG/90 - the number of goals scored minus the expected number of goals scored per 90 mins, based on the quality of the chance on goal (Opta data). The more positive number, the better or luckier the player is when shooting.
| Shots | SoT% | Goal/Shot | G-XG/90 |
Johnson | 1.6 | 46% | 0.13 | +0.02* |
Surridge | 2.5 | 22% | 0.11 | -0.22 |
Awoniyi | 2.2 | 43% | 0.29 | +0.22 |
Gibbs-White | 1.7 | 33% | 0.05 | -0.03 |
Dennis | 2.6 | 33% | 0.1 | +0.01 |
Lingard | 1 | 20% | n/a | -0.1 |
Wood | 0.7 | 33% | 0.33 | 0 |
Scarpa | 3.5 | 14% | n/a | -0.15 |
Data insights: For this section, leading honours for the individual characteristics are spread around the forwards, but overall for the section, Awoniyi comes out on top. He is 4th in his rate of shots per game amongst the Forest forwards (which is half the rate of Darwin Nunez who leads the rate in the Premiership, but again the possession Liverpool have vs Forest on average still makes this rate acceptable). He gets 43% of shots on target (only behind Johnson) and leads all the Premiership (level with Jaydon Sancho, for players with more than 15 shots all season) in scoring a goal in just under every 3 shots. He comfortably leads the Forest forwards in the perceived quality of the chances scored with a positive X-XG rating of 0.22 (5th= with Harry Kane in the Premiership for players with more than 15 shots all season). Awoniyi is a leading Premiership-quality finisher.
Johnson sneaks second place in the section over Dennis. Johnson leads in getting his shots on target, nearly half find the target, whereas Dennis is 1 in 3 shots (3rd=). Both score what they are expected to, given the quality of their individual chances (Johnson, when taking out penalty attempts, is 2nd and Dennis is 3rd). Dennis has a better rate of shots per game (2nd to Johnson's 6th) but Johnson's ratio of shots being goals is slightly higher (3rd to Dennis' 5th). The overall quality of Johnson's shooting gives him the edge. Johnson's average shot distance was 16.6 yards (3rd) compared to Dennis' average of 13.2 yards.
Wood comes next as he scores exactly what he is expected to on average, his rate of scoring per shots required is even higher than Premiership-leading Awoniyi (it is just he does not have the 15 shots to qualify for the stat). He had 3 shots, and scored 1 goal, just as expected. He does have by far the lowest shot rate per game though. It should be noted though that Wood's shots were from average 8.2 yards out, Awoniyi's were from 11.8 yards out and with a better rate on target %.
Scarpa slightly edges out Surridge next. Scarpa in his 2 games managed a leading rate of 3.5 shots per game, and Surridge is not far behind with 2.5 shots per game (3rd). Neither have the best rate of getting their shots on target (Surridge is 6th vs Scarpa who is last), but when consideration is taken of the average shooting distance, Scapra is shooting from a huge average 26.9 yards out, whereas Surridge is shooting from on average closer than Awoniyi at 11.6 yards. So even though Scarpa did not score, his goals-to-expected goals rating is less negative than Surridge's, who should have pretty much had a second goal in his 3.6 games (the bottom two in this characteristic).
Gibbs-White fairs better than Lingard in this section to see who brings up the rear. They both were expected to score 1 more goal than they did over the season, and both averagely shot from about 20 yards out, but given Gibbs-White played 3 times as many games as Lingard, his goals scored were only slightly below expectations (5th) compared to Lingard's (6th). Gibbs-White did shoot more frequently than Lingard (5th vs 7th) and was more often on target with those shots (3rd= vs 7th). Lingard did not score in 10 games, but Gibbs-White's shot ratio per goal is the lowest of all the forwards that had scored this season (1 goal for every 20 shots).
Creating goals and assists
This section is bringing all three other sections together and focuses squarely on goals, assists and directly supporting the build-up to them:
- SCA90 - the average number of shot-creating actions per 90 mins (the two offensive actions leading to a shot, including passes, carries and drawing a foul. The shot taker can also be credited)
- Assists - the average number of assists provided per 90 mins
- GCA90 - the average number of goal-creating actions per 90 mins (the two offensive actions leading to a goal, including passes, carries and drawing a foul. The scorer can also be credited)
- Goals - the average number of goals scored per 90 mins
| SCA90 | Assists | GCA90 | Goals |
Johnson | 1.7 | 0.09 | 0.34 | 0.25 |
Surridge | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.28 |
Awoniyi | 1.6 | 0.06 | 0.26 | 0.64 |
Gibbs-White | 3.6 | 0.24 | 0.36 | 0.15 |
Dennis | 3.1 | 0.25 | 0.37 | 0.25 |
Lingard | 2.4 | 0 | 0.2 | 0 |
Wood | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.24 |
Scarpa | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Data analysis: As mentioned up the top, across this article and the other end-of-season reports, the colouring of stats is based on how well Forest players have done compared to the other Forest players in that set of positions, not if those stats are acceptable. But looking at these stats, Forest have a set of forwards that score every 4 games (which is roughly 10 goals a season). To be midtable, 40-45 goals are needed minimum and then the defence needs to do their job. If the main striker can bag 15 goals, the other striker can score 10, the supporting forward and two midfielders each contribute 5 goals and defenders and the defensive midfielder chip in with 5 goals between them, that gives 45 goals.
There is not any 1 leader in this section, but a few key points come out as to those that are providing the most value. Awoniyi's goal rate is 5th overall in the whole Premiership and equates over a whole season to give 25 goals. He is the standout lead striker and a leading striker for the Premiership.
There are then a number of forwards that score or assist roughly once every 4 games. But it might be surprising to many Forest fans that Dennis comes out as the most rounded valuable forward in his per-game stats. He scores at the same rate as Johnson, Wood and Surridge. But he leads with Gibbs-White in also providing an assist with every 4 games. These two are above all the other forwards when it comes to being involved in creating shots and goals as well (other than Scapra whose shot-creation involvement is highest from his 2 games). So Dennis, from his rate of scoring, pips Gibbs-White, who is very close behind.
These 3 forwards provide the best value per 90 mins, Awoniyi's being very much from a stellar goal-scoring rate, but the other two for balanced performances.
Johnson comes in next. He is in line with the non-Awoniyi forwards with his scoring rate, but he also assists at a marginally better rate than Awoniyi, but he is involved in goal creation at a rate just lower than Dennis and Gibbs-White (3rd). He is 5th in shot-creation involvements.
It is very difficult to split out the other 4 forwards as only Lingard played more than 5 games. But each player does have some areas of note:
Starting with Surridge, he has the (marginally) 2nd highest scoring rate and is 4th in being involved in goal creation.
Scarpa is by far the leader in being involved in shot creation but has not actually registered any of the other stats in his 2 games.
Wood did score, but did not contribute in the other areas, and is 7th in being involved in shot creation.
Lingard, even with 10 games, did not assist or score once. His rate of goal involvement is lower than Surridge (and the 4 other forwards mentioned at the top). Even though his shot involvement is 4th, overall Lingard is marginally below the other 3 here.
Data insight summary
From the above, we have found that Johnson leads in attacking dribbling, Gibbs-White leads in attacking passing and Awoniyi leads in shooting (nothing to surprise the avid Forest fan). Dennis is added to this group for his leading all-around opportunity-creating and goal/assist rates (which probably does surprise the fans). We can also see the forward unit has the potential to be able to deliver the necessary goals scored to be at least mid-table with 30-40 goals between a front 3 if Awoniyi stays fit.
Player Report Cards
Brennan Johnson - Keep (Report card - 8/10)
Johnson has once again kicked on and adapted to life in the Premiership very well for someone still very young. Although it has been said that he does go missing in some games, which his stats do show from his lower-than-expected average shot rate per game, he is already a 10 goals-a-season forward. Given that he was on the bench for the run-in when Forest really clicked into gear to save their Premiership status should not overshadow some key goals he scored to get vital points earlier in the season. He needs to just keep pressing on with his development (he is already 21st in all the Premiership for shots-on-target %), become even more consistently involved in games and let Cooper worry about how to use him best. He has huge potential and finding a way to continue to play him will be key to keeping him at the club.
Sam Surridge - Loan Out (Report card - 5/10)
In the Championship, Surridge was used as a super-sub and had a trademark sweeping, ice-cold, consistent finishing technique. The step up to the Premiership would be difficult and that consistency has dropped (the lowest G-XG/90 rate of the forwards), and he seemed not to be favoured by Cooper off the bench. In his 3.6 games, he did get a goal, which gives him the second-highest goal rate of the forwards. As such, it seems he just needs more game time and confidence to grow to get that swagger back. But I can't see where this is going to come from next season behind Awoniyi, Johnson and Gibbs-White, plus any other additions. As such a loan spell back in the Championship is what is best and then if he amazes, he might be brought back into the squad, if not he will likely be sold (for lots or little, depending on the performance). There are parallels with Ben Brereton (Diaz), which is why I think there is still another gear in him.
Taiwo Awoniyi - Keep (Report card - 9/10)
Why is this not a 10? Well, the only reason is that he developed over the season to get to his season-saving form that kept Forest up. In the run-in, Forest's scoring records started tumbling as Awoniyi kept scoring in consecutive games. Even with his adjustment period at the start of the season (even though he did score Forest's goal of the season), his average stats for the whole season still puts him 1st= in shots-to-goal ratio in all the Premiership and 5th in his rate of scoring. Given he was adjusting to a new league and new team (which in itself was not settled) this is simply amazing. His rate of scoring, if fit for a whole season, puts him at 25 goals in a season. He wants to constantly learn and improve his all-round game to contribute more. He is a true gem and will be key to any Forest success next season.
Morgan Gibbs-White - Keep (Report card - 9/10)
Gibbs-White came into Forest with a hefty price tag over his head and a huge amount of expectations on his shoulders. Cooper had made him his #1 target and had that England youth setup link with him. Faith was shown all season with the most game time of any player and Cooper was rewarded. The talent was on show from the start but Gibbs-White's maturity and consistency have grown over the season. He possesses that mercurial vision and outside-of-the-boot passing, fantastic dribbling ability and a huge fire and drive for the game and for the club. All of these things were on display in the season-saving game vs Arsenal with the through ball for Awoniyi for the goal and in the final game at Crystal Palace with his insane dribble around the box in the last minute (which would have been goal of the season if he had scored) but then the desire to close down the throw out from the keeper and put the ball out, with a Stuart Pearce fist and roar right after.
His assist stats have him 9th= for assists in the Premiership, 22nd for the rate of assists, 28th for key passes and 31st in shot-creation involvement. The one part of this game that needs a little focus is his own goal-scoring (which is why he does not get a 10) to get to the level of one of the best in the Premiership, which he has the potential for. 20 shots per goal can be improved, especially considering Forest's low possession.
But he is on an upward trajectory with a senior England cap in his sights and the team will likely be built around him next season.
Emmanuel Dennis - Keep (Report card - 7/10)
From above, it is evident Dennis is an interesting one. His stats tell a story of a very rounded forward who has lots to offer, and pulls his weight when on the pitch. He is 18th in the Premiership for his rate of key passes, 31st= at shot creation involvement rate and 35th= for his assist rate. So he evidently has lots of value to the team. His data also points to huge effort levels, but it also points out the frequent loss of the ball. He dribbles with his head down and infuriates all around him as much of his industry just ends up at the feet of the opposition. Given Cooper only gave him 8 games points, despite these stats, also to a lack of belief in him.
But with the Cooper magic, some love, and a productive pre-season now with a more settled team, there is the possibility that the final product with the ball can be far more consistent. If so, Forest have a secret weapon as he showed with Watford in the Premiership. As such, he should be kept, given a full chance, but if it still is not working out, then sell him in January.
Jesse Lingard - Let contract expire (Report card - 5/10)
Lingard was a large gamble, and although he did not cost anything to buy, his wages and contract extras are reportedly extremely hefty. There was hope that he could do for Forest what he had done for West Ham. Sadly this never materialised. He actually had a few good games nearer the start of the season, and his stats show that shot-creation involvement. But with no goals or assists in 10 games is simply not good enough for someone with his ability and a very poor return for those lofty wages. It seems he fell totally out of favour post the World Cup break, and this might very well be that he no longer had an England spot to play for. But the reason why he has not been scored lower is that he allegedly has been really helping develop the younger players and has been a huge force in the dressing room, which has been seen at the side of the pitch every game, where he has been very animated and involved even though not playing. This should be given decent credit as it was getting a team spirit and collective drive in place that played a material part in saving the season. Sadly though that is not enough to warrant keeping him on.
Chris Wood - Keep (Report card - 5/10)
Wood was drafted in from Newcastle in January, with their fans having mixed opinions about if letting him go was good or bad for them. With Awoniyi battling injury, Wood had his opportunities for 4 games. He did score the Forest goal of the season in the comeback draw vs ManC but to be fair it was a tap-in. His hold-up play has not been consistently up to the standard that is required for his role, although he does always put in a hard graft and he also was not fully fit the whole time. He should be given a full pre-season in a settled Forest squad and see if he can find the types of performances that Newcastle valued, which were Premiership quality. If this does not materialise, and chances will be slim behind Awoniyi, then he might be moved on in January.
Gustavo Scarpa - Keep (Report card - 5/10)
Scarpa is still a bit of an enigma at Forest. He arrived to much intrigue about this very relaxed lover of skateboarding and being a prior player of the year in the Brazilian top league. Due to a number of factors, including his own fitness levels, injury and personal issues back in Brazil, he was limited to the equivalent of 2 games. In those two games, fans were treated to glimpses of his range of passing, and in those two games, he was not dispossessed, he miscontrolled the ball only once, had 7 shots and was involved in creating 10 shots. Although these stats are only over 2 games, they each lead in per-game stats for the whole Forest squad.
So the promise is still there and the hope is getting him fit, settled back at the club and getting a full pre-season under his belt. Once that is done the fans will be keen to see him given some game time, maybe as a super-sub, and see if the promise can turn into consistent creativity and attacking threat.
Transfer notes: Forest look like they have some good options already in the forward department. With Cooper favouring 3 up top the majority of the time, 6 forwards are needed and Johnson will no longer be on the Premiership registration U21 B-list (that does not count towards the 25-person squad limit). Awoniyi, Johnson and Gibbs-White are Premiership quality, with Dennis having the ability that might be able to be unlocked consistently. Scarpa should be kept to hopefully unlock his potential. He might be seen as a midfielder, but his skill set is more in the Gibbs-White position. Wood is seen as the backup to Awoniyi for a physical forward presence. Lingard has been released. That already makes up the 6 desired players, and this further points to Surridge being loaned out to the Championship, as discussed above. If the forward unit is to be improved, then Wood should be moved on, but Cooper may feel that he cannot get out of Dennis what he needs, so he may be the one to be moved on. Both should be moved on if two quality forward reinforcements are brought in.
Do you agree with these ratings and transfer predictions? Do the stats surprise you at all? Please let me know below! Much appreciated!
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