By TheRandomPundit
21st May 2024
We have reached the end of a very turbulent season and the main achievement of surviving the troublesome 2nd season back in the Premier League has been ticked off.
It has not been without a fair share of stress, agony, frustration, disappointment and sheer disbelief at times.
But the season has seen the passing of the torch, from arguably our 2nd most successful ever manager in Steve Cooper to Nuno Espirito Santo, who has had to contend with a hugely stacked hand against him, on and off the pitch, let alone fill the much-loved boots of Cooper amongst the fans.
Throughout the season at the key breaks, I have been taking a team performance barometer on how Forest have been doing across a number of metrics.
But if we take a step back from the data (not everyone takes massive stock in data) and think about what we have witnessed in games the ‘old school’ way with our eyes and a pitch, the general fan consensus is that in the move to Nuno, Forest have:
1. Become more fluid in attack
2. The style of football has become more attractive
3. We have become more leaky in defence
4. We cannot defend set pieces if our lives depend upon it
In simple terms, we have moved from parking the bus (or in newer terms, but meaning the same thing, deploying a low block) and hoping to nick a goal on the counterattack to now trying to outscore the opposition, but inevitably getting undone from set pieces against us.
There is also a feeling that we are very close to being a mid-table team, but it is silly mistakes that stopped us from being higher than 17th in the table.
So now let’s take a look at some data and see if that tells us a story anything like above….
To evidence evolution through the season, I have taken data points at the November break, the January break and at season end. These are cumulative data points, not just the data from the last data point. So if there is a large uptick in a stat at the end of the season, that points to an even larger uptick in the stat in the back end of the season to pull up the average for the whole season. The same though applies for stats nose-diving.
As usual, I will temper any analytics of team performance vs other Premier League teams for absolute stats (like number of tackles per 90 mins) which are very skewed to the style of the team. More reliable comparable stats to other teams are the success % type of stats (like tackles, passes etc). But we can use all stats to see how Forest themselves have evolved vs other Premier League teams in terms of style and execution.
To clarify, in the graphs, a score of 20 is the team being the best in Premier League in a stat (e.g. best tackle %, lowest error rate per 90 mins), with 1 being the worst at the stat.
Defence
When it comes to tackling, only Palace bettered Forest in successfully tackling dribblers. But in overall tackles, that improvement seen midseason has slightly dropped off with Forest being middle of the pack in overall tackle success % come season end (11th). This could be explained by the press being deployed more and just needing to sharpen up the effectiveness of that.
We would expect a high level of blocking, intercepting and clearing given Forest do not usually have the majority of possession. Comparatively, though, all 3 have not moved in terms of league ranking since mid-season. But it does look like the team has evolved from the start of the season to now intercept less but block more. Personally, I would much rather the ball is intercepted before a shot is taken by the opposition, but the two are not directly comparable.
Much has been made of the need to improve aerial ability. However, winning aerial duels has had the same league ranking throughout the whole season and is near ¾ way up the table (7th). So it is more about key headers against defensive set pieces that need to be focussed on, not necessarily aerial duels all over the pitch.
With less of the ball, there is less chance to error with it! But overall Forest have slightly improved in reducing the rate of errors since mid-season to get back to the rate at the start of the season. This has been with an uptick in possession % during matches, so overall relative error rates have improved.
Sharpness to recover the ball is still the area that can be improved the most, which also links to interceptions. Recoveries improved slightly at mid-season and have held at their fairly low ranking since then (14th). Winning the majority of loose balls makes life so much easier during a game, so any gains in this area will benefit the team greatly.
So since mid-season, other than overall tackle % slightly dipping, defensive stats have stayed the same or even slightly improved being at the higher ends of the spectrum to start with. So this does point not to a lapse in defensive skills generally, but really at those set-piece extreme frailties that are undoing the solid defensive work. Please see the conclusion where I explore this in more detail in terms of the number of goals conceded.
Possession
These stats have been low comparatively to the rest of the league through the season as Forest do not have much possession in a game historically. But Nuno has tried to have the team keep the ball more than Cooper did.
If we think about what has made Forest successful over the last few seasons, it has been getting the ball out wide, beating the fullbacks with pace and putting the ball into the box. At mid-season, we saw the frequency of taking on defenders relatively dropping vs other teams and that new low ranking (5th lowest) has been maintained in the back end of the season.
Where the huge step change has come in the team, and across most of the stats in this piece, is the success in beating the defender. Forest have leapt up from being in the bottom 5-6 clubs to being in the top half (9th). We have witnessed the progression of Hudson-Odoi and although many fans have been frustrated at Elanga over complicating his game, when he does simply get it wide and run, he is lethally effective. Both players were here under Cooper, so we can see this an a coaching evolution under Nuno and give him the credit for this (although Elanga was arguably more effective under Cooper and the pure counter attack approach).
With less of the ball, the frequency of progressively dribbling with the ball (towards the opponent’s goal by at least 10 yards) or carrying it into the opponent’s box will be comparatively lower than possession-based teams. Rates are still low vs other league teams and being around the 15th -16th mark. These have slightly trended upwards from both being 17th at the start of the season and is indicative of having slightly more possession in the game as the season progressed.
Being dispossessed and miscontrolling the ball are also impacted by share of possession, but it is still key to be very disciplined with the ball when it is possessed. Forest have been in the top 2 clubs for not being dispossessed all season long, but miscontrolling has been getting comparatively worse as the season has gone on, going from 6th to 9th to 11th. Many a fan has pulled their hair out from a Gibbs-White flick that does not come off, but it is Awoniyi, Wood, Elanga, Gibbs-White and Williams that are all on 2+ mincontrols per 90 mins.
So overall, Forest have become far more successful in taking on defenders when dribbling, but care of the ball in the form of miscontrolling has degraded over the season.
Passing
When it comes to passing and the low stats Forest have had, there is the fact we have not been set up to retain the ball for lots of Man City type passes. We get the ball, hopefully via turnover of possession high up the pitch, and get forward quickly. Looking at dribbling vs defenders above, this shows success in this method.
But we can’t get away from passing being a fundamental part of the game and is a building block for the team to mature and to be able to achieve more possession and be comfortable with it. How many times have Forest failed to control and see out a lead in a game this season? Shockingly we have lost 26 points from winning positions (only Brentford, Burnley and Bournemouth have done worse). Retaining the ball in a calm manner is front and centre in improving this next season. But are their green shoots of improvement over this back end of the season to build upon?
Progressive passing is the other side of moving the ball forward other than progressive dribbling. As we have seen an uptick in carrying the ball forward since the start of the season (stabilised over the last half of the season), passing the ball forward has dropped off from the start of the season (more running with the ball than playing long through balls). Even though it has slightly improved in the back end of the season, this is one of the stats that still has Forest in the bottom 3. This will need to improve for the team to evolve, although as long as the progressive dribbling side is continually improving, there is less of an imperative need for this to improve drastically as well.
Pass completion has been woeful since the start of the season. To the November break, Forest were in the bottom 3 for overall pass completion %, short (5-15 yards) and mid-range (16-30 yards) pass completion %.
Overall pass completion % has steadily improved over the season, and hopefully, this continues to trend upwards. Forest ended up 15th overall for the season, which is actually an even better performance in the back end of the season to bring this up to 15th from 18th at the start of the season.
Short passing has slightly improved up to 16th over the season, but mid-range passing is still bottom 3 quality.
Long-range passing (over 30 yards) has improved and ended up being 11th best in the league. Forest fans think of Murillo’s and Gibbs-White’s raking long passing accuracy being the basis of that, with the team having a long-range completion rate of 50.7% over the season. They sit at 47.2% and 51.2% respectively, being the 2 outfield players trying it the most (623 of 1879 outfield attempts). Murillo does have nearly double the progressive passing yards of Gibbs-White. But all is not lost if Murillo is sold this summer. Omobamidele has a long pass completion rate of 64.0%, with Dominguez being even more lethal with a completion record of 73.8%. Even Sangare with this stop-start beginning to his Forest career has a completion rate of 64.0%. Granted Murillo’s balls are 60-yard laser-accurate balls, not 30-yard balls, but there is some redundancy in the squad to keep long range passing going if Murillo does have to be sold.
The rate of key passes and passing into the box will be tempered by the fact Forest look to dribble down the wings and cross the ball into the box. As such, both of these stats has stayed pretty steady around 16th over the season.
What has hugely picked up since the start of the season is the frequency of crossing into the box. Forest started the season as 19th best, but a large pick-up saw them 11th best at the Jan break and fell off a little back down to 14th over the whole season.
Forest have improved to into mid-table for staying onside, being up to 11th overall for the season. This is something that Nuno must have worked on, as it was very frustrating the number of offsides that the front 4 were being caught out on earlier in the season.
Overall, passing is something that does need to continue to improve, and specifically mid-range passing needs the most attention. The overall consistent improvement over this season needs to continue if they are to move to a more desirable mid-table finish next season, even if rapid dribbling is a key part of the DNA of the team.
Shooting
I have been on social media lots over the last two seasons lauding the amazing efficiency of the front line with their league-leading shot to goal ratios. As this season winds up, this is still very true. Even with Wood’s barren run at the end of the season until the Burnley game, he is still 3rd overall for this ratio in the Premier League (1 goal every 3.45 shots). Awoniyi is 4th overall (1 goal every 3.70 shots). They were only bettered by Adebayo (many Forest fans are wanting him on the summer shopping list) and Mateta (I would take the rumours about PSG with a pinch of salt though!), both with a goal every 3.13 shots.
So the front line has been heavily leaning on the scoring efficiency of the strikers. But how overall has the team done with shooting?
As we would expect, the rate Forest shoot will be lower than other teams as it is linked to a degree to possession. But under Nuno, this more front-foot approach has yielded more shooting. This is evidenced when Forest went toe to toe with Man City at the back end of the season when Forest had 14 shots to Man City's 11. The rate of shooting was 19th at the Nov break, it moved to 17th at the Jan break and then climbed up to 15th overall for the season. Again, to move the overall average up means that the end of the season stats were above 15th to pull the overall season average up to 15th. As the team evolves with more possession, it would be hoped this would increase, as Forest cannot rely on their strikers having exceptional shot-conversion rates every season.
What is very worrying to see is the backward trend of getting shots on target. This has gone from 11th to 17th to 18th overall for the season, i.e. now bottom 3. This is a huge tailoff but we know that Wood and Awoniyi are not to blame here. So we need to look wider, and anyone who follows me on social media will know what is coming. It is a very unpopular opinion, but the blame primarily rests squarely at the feet of Gibbs-White. Yes he is great at creating chances (he leads Forest’s shot-creating actions – the two actions leading to a shot – with 4.25 per 90 mins, although Hudson-Odoi is close behind with 3.98 per 90 mins) and has to be picked, but as a no10, you need to be able to shoot well. Simply, currently he cannot and needs to improve if he wants any shot at an England cap in the future. With a leading 70 of the squad’s 450 shots, he managed to get just 18.6% on target. Only Aina and Mangala have a worse % in the whole squad.
To give context the front line players have these key stats:
- Wood : 54.2% Shots on Target, 3.45 shots per goal
- Awoniyi : 50.0% Shots on Target, 3.70 shots per goal
- Hudson-Odoi : 52.6% Shots on Target, 4.76 shots per goal
- Elanga : 40.7% Shots on Target, 11.11 shots per goal
- Gibbs-White : 18.6% Shots on Target, 16.67 shots per goal
The other person that needs to work on shooting with priority is Yates. He has the 5th most shots in the team, but has only scored with 1 of his 32 shots, with only 21.9% even getting on target. Elanga does get the ball on target frequently but he does need to work on upping his shot to goal ratio. There will be a small natural bump from Origi being sent back to his club, after 14 shots, 0 goals and 14.3% on target.
So even with two of the four most lethally efficient forwards in the Premier League (and also Hudson-Odoi being 11th in the Premier League) Forest have dropped over the season from 7th best shot-to-goal ratio in the first half to 9th by the end of the season. Still not bad at all, but again, Wood, Awoniyi and Hudson-Odoi may not keep up their exceptional shooting stats, so the rest of the team needs to improve. It also shows how below mid-table the rest of the team is to get to 9th overall.
The other stat that is worrying, although somewhat subjective, is ‘actual goals minus expected goals’. Like the shots on target, and slightly like the shots per goal ratio, this ‘scoring what you should’ stat has also tailed off over the season. Forest have drifted from upper mid-table (8th) to lower mid-table (13th), which like others I have pointed out shows an even larger recent tail off to bring down the season average that much, but must be a function of the shots on target poorly tailing off.
So overall Nuno has got the team more attacking, and some of the team are propping up the shooting stats with exceptional season performances, but there needs to be an improvement in shooting quality throughout all of the team to shoulder the burden and not cause a goal issue if Wood / Awoniyi / Hudson Odoi are sold / injured (which are not outside the realms of very possible).
Overall
So with the season over and finishing 17th, the hopes and, in some corners, expectations of Forest next season is to be mid-table.
Looking at the overall stats performance of the team, the defence stats are already there, if they can just fix their set pieces. To put context on that, they conceded 67 goals in the season, but 22 (32.8%) of those were from set pieces. Even cutting out half of those (which would put them 9th / 10th best with Chelsea and Everton in defending set pieces) would reduce the number of season goals conceded to 56. This season, that would give Forest the 5th best defence in the whole league!
Passing has slowly trended upwards and if that continues that could place them more mid-table. Mid-range passing needs to be looked at hard though, and if Murillo is sold, Omobamidele, Dominguez and Sangare need to step up to fill the long-range passing void.
Effectiveness when dribbling with the ball has now become a mid-table side output already, and with more of the ball the surrounding stats of the frequency of it happening will trend upwards along with the execution stats.
Shooting is the difficult one. If Wood, Awoniyi and Hudson-Odoi are all here next year, fit and on form, they could carry the whole team again. Elanga should be 1 year more mature and if Sangare comes online as the 6 we need, Danilo will be free to shoot more. But we cannot paper over that shooting accuracy practice is needed by the wider squad, especially Gibbs-White and Yates. The team needs about another 6 goals a season to be mid-table (to get to 55 goals), so if Gibbs-White, Danilo, Yates and Dominguez up their game slightly, this is very achievable and not a major overhaul or focus. But if Gibbs-White can consistently find his shooting boots, this will greatly transform the fortunes of the team.
So looking back at the eye test at the start, the three main areas of close season and pre-season focus to become mid-table are pretty much as we thought:
1. Half the number of set-pieces conceded
2. Sangare or someone else needs to be the no6 to anchor the team, control games and increase possession
3. Passing and movement in the team needs to improve, especially in the 10-15 yards area
I hope you have enjoyed the article. Please do let me know your thoughts on the above. Please leave comments here on the site or on Twitter/X.
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