Context of the Forest vs Everton game
Forest headed into the home game with Everton knowing this was one of the key home games against the bottom 9 teams that is a must win for Premiership survival. From February they needed wins in their 4 homes games of this type: Leeds (Feb), Everton (Mar), Wolves (Apr) and Southampton (May) and that would given them 34 points and likely only a few draws to provide safety this season.
The Leeds win had made it 1 of 4 done and dusted, and with Forest unbeaten in 8 games at the City Ground going into this game, even off the back of a very mentally fragile 4-0 defeat at West Ham, there was a sense that confidence should have been high. This should have been backed up by Everton’s inability to score and also the worst away form of any Premiership club over the last 8 away games.
What was non-negotiable from a points, pride and home mental strength perspective was to not surrender 3 points and the home record to Everton.
Everton arguably needed the 3 points more, as they only have 1 of these key home games against the bottom 9 left this season, their final game against Southampton in May. A win would put them up to within a point of Forest.
The Forest line up
Initial viewing of the line up was hugely positive. Aurier was due to be out for another week, and there was much chatter about Lodi having picked up a knock in the West Ham game that might not be resolved in time for this game. Both were in the starting XI, but a closer look showed both Williams and Toffolo on the bench, so there was a question mark on the full fitness levels of Aurier and Lodi. But with that home game with Wolves not for another 4 weeks, I thought this was the right call to risk them for a game of this magnitude. The three key home games are all spaced out by a month, so it allows for these risks to be taken.
With injuries, selecting Navas, Worrall and Filipe is a no brainer with no other viable options. The game vs West Ham fell apart when Shelvey game off, so starting Shelvey was key. The question was how long would he last this game, but again like above, I would say play him until he drops. Johnson and Gibbs-White are the first two names on the team sheet, and unsurprisingly there they were.
That leaves one forward and two midfielders up for debate, much of which was happening in the days running up to the game. Copper opted to change nothing in these spots from the West Ham game, keeping Freuler and Colback in midfield and Wood up front.
I would expect a hugely combative approach from a Dyche side, starting with midfield dominance. So I understand why Freuler and Colback were retained in the midfield. What was a little surprising was no Scarpa or Danilo on the bench. Mangala was in there for another combative option, but the huge boost was to see Yates on the bench. Another question mark was how fit was he and would he be able to play a part in the game. It seems Ayew was trusted again on the bench to be used in midfield.
The Wood selection up front was a nod to high levels of combat, but he would really need to turn up today to justify his spot. Lingard, Surridge and Dennis were all attacking options on the bench in case we needed to chase the game.
Verdict: a very understandable team selection given the opposition, but surprising not to have swapped one of the forward options on the bench for Scarpa for impact midfield creativity mid-way through the game, especially if Shelvey could not last the full game.
The game
I don’t plan here to give a blow by blow account of the game, but provide some key insights that I observed and felt.
The first half
Given Forest were at home, it was surprising that it was Everton that came flying out of the blocks, and had me worried the West Ham game had not been sufficiently shaken off. Everton dominated possession, not helped by the fact Forest could not pass and retain the ball for more than 5 seconds. This was very worrying as this was the symptom of most of the poor Forest performances of late.
Things went from bad to worse when Shelvely very sillily gave away a penalty for clipping some ankles, something you do not expect from one of our most seasoned Premiership players. It was Gray, who snatched 3 points away from Forest in the reverse fixture at the start of the season, who took the penalty. If Navas has guessed the right way, it would have been saved, but alas no and Forest were 0-1 down after 10 mins.
I was very worried as we have not shown the mental fortitude which was in abundance last season when going behind, epitomised last week with the collapse at West Ham. Was this going to happen again?
Good news was suddenly Forest, urged on by the loyal fans, clicked into gear and started getting the ball on the ground and using the channels to attack and putting the Everton goal under some serious pressure. This paid off with some really great link up play, like we saw with the Man City goal. Going through the middle Gibbs-White was powering into the box, but with the usual Everton press closing in on him, he fired it firmly at Wood in the D, who first time excellently cushioned it back into Gibbs-White’s path. He ran into the box and fired low and hard to Pickford’s left, the shot was pushed out wide, but the agile Johnson managed to arc his tracking run into the box to collect the ball and fire it in from a tight angle on the 19th minute. The City Ground erupted with relief and belief, given the dominance of Forest in the 10 minutes up to that goal.
Forest did maintain the front foot after the goal, which huge energy from the crowd, but around the 25th minute Everton started to get back into it. Forest gave away a foul just inside the Everton half, which is a mistake with any Dyche side, who really only score from set pieces. What ensued was the expected Pickford launch of the ball towards the box. But then followed a headed cross from Tarkowski, a Keen headed knock on in the box and Doucoure lost Freuler, or rather Freuler just failed to track the run of Doucoure, and had an easy tap in header in the 6 yard box on the 29th minute. Three lost headers from a long ball and a goal. Unacceptable defending. What was questionable was Gibbs-White was fouled seconds before Colback gave away the free kick that resulted in the goal, but the referee did not deem it a foul.
This changed the pattern of the rest of the first half, with Forest passingly slowly around the back and lumping the ball long. If they were not lumping it, pinging balls were just headed forward and the second ball more often than not was lost. Passes were going missing again, with Filipe being the worst offender, with multiple passes finding touch, not the player.
A large issue was that Everton were pressing Shelvey so he did not have enough time to find excellent balls forward, but also Forest players were so static when Forest were in possession, progressive quick play was being stifled as Everton were choking the midfield. Given Cooper opted for two enforcers in midfield, this was very worrying.
Verdict: Other than 15 minutes when the equaliser was scored, Forest looked sloppy in possession and not playing to their strengths, with the ball in air far too much. Everton had the better of the half, which was reflected in two set piece goals.
The second half
Copper did his job and the team came out more fired up and had a good energy and intensity about them. Balls were still going astray and too many balls were being fired over the top. But we did see the first glimpses of Wood’s ability to win the ball. Holding it up was too rare, and second balls were still not being won.
Possession was not totally dominated by Forest, but Forest at the back had shored up and Everton were creating nothing in front of goal, with Forest putting plenty of balls into the Everton box. Sadly few of the balls in were of quality, with Aurier getting in very progressive positions on the right regularly but his balls in the box were just finding Pickford.
The game was also warming up fast with passion in the players. Only Doucoure and Godfrey had been booked by the referee, but a number of flare ups in the second half had the referee reaching into his pocket with a regular occurrence. Each side had 3 players carded in the second half and it would have been a popular bet to place on at least one player been sent off.
With Godfrey carded in the first half, Forest were aiming to use Johnson as much as possible down their right side, which was producing those opportunities from the right with Johnson and Aurier.
Forest were starting to show quicker ball on the deck and a near carbon copy of the amazing team goal vs Man City was built down the right side, only for Gibbs-White to be scythed down on the right of box after some rapid counter play. One of the many player melees of the second half then ensued.
With positivity but no breakthrough, Copper rolled the dice and made a triple substitution on the 70th minute mark. To a huge fan cheer, Yates was brough on which gave a lift to the players and fans alike. Freuler and Colback were removed, as they still had not consistently won the battle in midfield, along with Wood. Ayew was brought on into midfield to join Yates, and Dennis was placed up front. In my opinion, Yates was a great move, but always picking Ayew of late in midfield rather than Mangala (or others in other matches) is interesting but open to what this brings and how fit Mangala actually is. But Surridge needs game time and is very mobile plus loves combat and has height. So why bring on Dennis? The only positive I can say from this is Copper must be seeing something from Dennis in training now, which if so bodes well for the rest of the season.
The substitution worked and how have Forest missed Yates.
On the 77th minute, Forest again targeted Godfrey down the Everton left, Forest right channel. Johnson, who looked like a player possessed today, ran towards the box, cutting in from the right. Yates had drifted out to the right of the box, Johnson fired it to him and Yates had the composure and vison to assertively cut it back across to the centre of the box edge where Johnson had run onto. Johnson calmly took a quick touch and then side foot curled the ball with his left foot around a defender, blind sighting Pickford, and into the top left corner of the goal. A quality finish from a striker brimming with confidence.
I will say, having picked on Filipe for some very poor passing in the first half, that he won the ball back on the half way line that broke for Johnson for the build up to that goal. He also showed good ball carrying skills with urgency to start rapid counters.
Yates was also back and match sharp, as he was tacking back to speedily take the ball of Everton that had sprung the back line and would have been in on goal.
What then followed was 13 minutes, and 5 additional minutes of stoppage time, of high octane, end to end and highly fiery football.
To much surprise there was no red card and no winning goal and the game finished 2-2. Although it was only really Forest showing decent chances to score the winner.
Verdict: Forest were dominant in the second half, but it raises the question why can’t they do this for 90 mins? Everton did not threaten Navas with anything in the second half.
Post match thoughts
It was vital not to give Everton 3 points and it was very pleasing to see Forest come from behind twice in the game to earn a point. This does bode well from a mentality perspective. But Forest allowed Everton, who can’t score, two goals from shambolic defending. This needs to be sorted out. But with Niakhate close to returning, more options at the back will be available.
A very large plus was full game time for Lodi, Aurier and Shelvey and what appears to be no more knocks or injuries.
Lodi and Aurier have consistently looked very solid and Premiership quality in the full back positions. Filipe looks like he has the potential to be very solid at the back, and is still getting back up to full speed. His passing needs to drastically improve though. Worrall put in some key tackles today but does not have the pace needed, so cannot make a single mistake or it can be costly. Niakhate and Boly provide real Premiership quality on the way back as options, but which time Filipe I expect to make this a tough call for 2 at the back.
Shelvey has quality and gives great delivery from dead ball positions, let’s just hope the penalty was a blip in sensible decision making. Yates looks sharp and made an instant impact in the 20 mins he has been back for, with an assist and a vital intercepted goal attempt.
Johnson is just getting better and better, and showing the maturity at his young age to drag this team forward and take responsibility on his shoulders. He now has 5 goals in the last 7 games. Gibbs-White did not have his best game, and was lucky not to get sent off as he was so fired up, but is also high quality, destined for great things and is the thrusting forward force of the good game on the deck.
Wood showed a great touch with the layoff to Gibbs-White in the build up for the first goal, and there were some flashes of good hold up play. But in a game that should be suited to his skill set, he was not dominant enough and I would like to see more of Surridge.
That leaves Freuler and Colback. With Yates back, and Shelvey starting along side him, I would say there is 1 starting place left in the following games. The fan base are very split on Freuler, and his case was not helped by very poor awareness for the second Everton goal. Colback gave away the foul for that second goal. I concede if they are both doing their jobs well, it really should be mainly unnoticed, but it was clear we did not win the midfield battle today. Freuler is trusted by Cooper, and was given the captaincy when Worrall and Yates have not been starting. But with Yates back, Freuler is no picked just for his leadership. Long term Danilo may be the answer. But for now, it will have to be whoever is training best between Freuler, Colback and Mangala, but none of the 3 are stand out candidates to lock it the position down in an exceptional manner.
What is clear though is that playing long balls does not suit us, and as soon as we get the ball down on the deck and up intensity and urgency, our play hugely improves. Arcing balls over the top do not work, but if Shelvey can be bought time, or player move more quickly, aggressive balls into channels for Johnson and Gibbs-White hugely suit us. With Yates back, that increases the threat of aggressive ball carrying from midfield, and with the Shelvey penetrating longer balls, this will give a tough call for opposition midfield and defences, who will not be able to keep it super tight between their lines to cover off both threats, and that opens up space for Gibbs-White to operate.
Where does this leave Forest’s chances of staying up?
I am concerned for Forest now though as they have drawn one of the non-negotiable 3 home games with the bottom 9. This means they need to win those last 2 key home games, and then pick up a win and at least 1 draw from home games vs Newcastle, ManU, Brighton and Arsenal which is going to be very tough. That will put Forest on 36 points and probably safe.
Away form is really not good, and any points dropped from above need to be made up from trips to Spurs, Leeds, Villa, Liverpool, Brentford, Chelsea and Palace.
They also need to find a win soon as they are the only side, along with Palace, in the bottom 9 that have not won in the last 4 games.
For me, Forest now need to target the Leeds game away and treat that as a must win to get back on the easier track to safety.
Let’s chat!
How did you find the game?
What are your thoughts on the quality at certain positions?
How to you rate Forest’s chances of staying up after this game?
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