There are real ‘6 pointer’ games for teams in the relegation conversation at this stage of the season, and these are the ones playing each other, none more important that those ones that are at home.
For Forest, today was 1 of 4 such games that Forest have for the rest of the season. If they win those 4, they very likely stay up as that would guarantee 33 points just from those, now 3, matches.
To get a view of how these key fixtures impact the bottom teams’ chances, take a look at my predictions I made for the drop at the half way stage of the season, just as the January window was opening – Are the Toffees stuck to the bottom?
This win against Leeds means the job is ¼ done for Forest. Everton, Wolves and Bournemouth still to come to complete the key home fixture list with rivals for survival.
What did we learn from the game?
Although Cooper has always been focusing on performances in interviews, these key games are simply about getting the 3 points, so in that regard, it was 100% job done. But it did show the increased resilience of the team consistently getting something out of a game, a point if not the full 3, in recent games.
Form: Forest are now 1st equal (with Brighton and Brentford) as the form team over the last 4 games
Defence: It is only 1 goal conceded in all of those last 4 games. Given the hideous memories for Forest fans of the 6 goals vs ManCity, 3 goals to each of the other promotees Fulham and Bournemouth, 5 vs Arsenal and the 4 to Leicester, this is dramatic progress. That Leicester match brought about a strategic change, and the defence is now much like the Forest seen during the surge up the Championship. Niakhate and Filipe are still to come back/in to the central defence to improve it further.
Goalkeeping: When Henderson is back, there is going to be a real fight for the #1 jersey and Forest look very well set in this department for the run in.
Attacking: Those last 4 games have yielded only 5 goals. Other than the 2 goals to beat Leicester, the last time Forest have scored more than 1 goal in a league game was at home to Brentford back at the start of November. At least the forward line is scoring each game on average, the defence are certainly pulling their weight in Forest’s uptick in form.
Long balls: There was very little possession in the game, and there was a much larger use of the long ball by Navas and the defence. This may have been due to the relentless Leeds high press, but hopefully it will not be here to stay as it really did not work well (see below).
How did the players do?:
Navas: A superb debut and he really kept Forest in the game in the 1st half when the defence was not as solid as usual. Massive bravery was show with the scars to prove it on his face from Boly’s studs (communication can be sharpened!). The performance felt the start of cult hero status being earned already with the Forest fans. The one area that could be improved upon is his distribution, with a very low % of kicks out finding a Forest target.
Boly: A game of huge growth, after a few shaky episodes in the first half. By the back end of the second half, he was in imperious form cutting out everything with a show of calm and self-assuredness. He is quicker than McKenna which is very key.
McKenna: Hats off. After some of his recent performances, I have partially written him off (per some of my other articles). But today he read the game much more quickly and provided a no nonsense display of solid defending. The first half with Boly did have a few scares, but they really hit their stride in the second half. He needed to show this as Niakhate is close to a return and Filipe has joined, which makes him 4th choice (in my eyes) for the back 2 spots.
Lodi: He kept his side of the back line pretty trouble free, other than one silly free kick given away, and really seems to be getting better and better. His ball control, speed and threat going forward will allow Cooper to use him as a devastating wingback, if the formation would allow it. 100% Forest should sign him after the loan, and I can’t see him saying no if Forest stay up, especially now with a significant Brazilian contingent in the squad.
Williams: Maximum effort, he ran his socks off. It got a little ragged at the end, but I am not surprised as he was just out of juice and Cooper did not have the extra player for defensive midfield duties that he needed to give Williams a break. Williams did pretty well as Leeds were targeting his left flank and Gnonto was Leeds’ best player, but it was very interesting seeing him being moved up into midfield ahead of Lodi, opening up lots of countering possibilities if he actually started there and had juice left in his legs. This shows more flexibility given he can already play fullback or wingback on both sides. A hugely valuable player who is still learning his craft.
Aurier: Coming on for the second half as Cooper ID’ed there was a problem vs the Leeds setup, and to his credit Cooper changed it. Although slower than Gnonto, very rarely did he allow a cross to come in from that wing. They even switched Gnonto over to Lodi’s wing to see if they could get any change out of him. Superb.
Danilo: Was substituted at half time, as I expected given his style of play and already being on a yellow card from the first half. He is very young and is getting used to the pace of the Premiership. The super quick, aggressive and unrelenting press from Leeds caused him to be a bit frantic, throwing himself around. No lack of effort, but he should be blooded in games that do not have that intense press, as he will then be able to distribute the ball we have seen from him already from his few appearances.
Freuler: His job is one that does not attract lots of attention, especially if being done well. This game I can’t recall any howlers, but the midfield did need changing up at half time as it was being overrun. He kept his place though. He does provide lots of experience in the middle of the park, but I am still not 100% decided where he sits in the pecking order of the large midfield options when they are all fit.
Mangala: Also substituted at half time, Copper did need to change it to get control back. He did not have a terrible game, and was getting around to break up play, but it was not his best or most influential game, with no powerful runs forward.
Colback: I was calling him for to be brought on at half time to get control back of the midfield, and Cooper delivered. Colback has been such a wonderful and flexible servant to the club in the recent past in various positions, but he has bags of Premiership experience in midfield. He has shown this again today and the value he still has in the squad.
Gibbs-White: It was a present from Santa Claus in February for every Forest fan when to everyone’s surprise he was listed in the starting XI. He did look very tentative in the first half, but I am sure he was just getting his confidence back on that ankle. 2nd half and the confidence was back. He was being that same menace that caused Casemiro so many problems in the game he got injured. The largest talent in the squad, he is key to Forest ticking.
Johnson: Great strikers stay sharp and take their chances when they come along. The forwards were starved of very much stable possession until parts of the second half. But his goal in the first half was as pure a strike as you will see. So composed, perfect technique and he looks full of confidence. Now hopefully he can show this with consistency in front of goal. This will help maintain his rate of goal involvements in the last few league games (4 games, 3 goals, 2 assists), but needs others to chip in as well.
Wood: Sadly this was not the best game for him. There really was not much service, but (and this is a huge but) Forest deployed the long ball a lot, and he is in the side to be that target man. He won very little of his duels vs Cooper and on the few breaks Forest had, he was far too slow and clumsy with the ball and they petered out. He will come good in other games I am sure, but this was not a good game for him.
Surridge: He is really getting brighter and brighter and provides a duel threat of being able to win the first ball high in the air, but is also very quick to turn a defender on the ground (note Awoniyi can also do this). It was a shame he curved his trademark finish just over the bar from the left hand side of the box to finish off the game, but he put in a real battling shift. He does really need to sort out being caught offside though, as this happened again when it shouldn’t have. Also needless yellows for slowing down freekicks at the end of the game should get cut out.
Ayew: Came on right at the end in injury time as Williams had zero left in the tank. This was into midfield which highlights the injuries still to Yates and Kouyate, and Shelvey not being match fit yet, but also how much Cooper was trying to get control in midfield.
How are Forest set now?
Forest have clocked up 24 points from 21 games, so 3 points ahead of a point a game that should keep any side up (38 points). 1 of the 4 keys games I highlighted is ticked off. Everton are next up at the start of March for those matches. But before then, for the rest of February, there is:
Fulham (A) which a point would be good in their form
ManCity (H) which is a free hit but don’t get any injuries
West Ham (A) the key here is not to lose, 3 points would be a bonus
No points from the above would bring Forest back to 24 points from 24 games, but 2 points would show these new Forest roots are still very strong. More than 2 points will show green shoots of real growth towards what Cooper is trying to get Forest to be in his vision.
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