We now move on to the defensive unit: central defenders and full/wingbacks.
Please just click the links below for the other positions:
Midfielders
Attacking Midfielders and Strikers
Central Defenders
So far this season in just 20 games, no less than 6 centrebacks have been used (in order of playing minutes): Murillo, Boly, Niakhate, Worrall, McKenna and Filipe. Filipe managed 1.5 games worth of 90 mins, so I will include him, but his stats do need to be taken with a pinch of salt with a small sample size.
At the November break, I was lauding praise on the defensive unit. They had only allowed 33 shots on target against them in their 8 games, which was 7th= best in the league (their 10 goals conceded was 8th best). But at this 20-game stage, that has declined. They have now allowed 91 shots on target (a small increase in rate on the first 8 games) and that is 11th best. This is still better than their league position, but it is a slight decline.
Starting with a staple skill, we are looking at the rate of successfully tackling players. Now although I have cautioned the small sample size with Filipe, we have all seen he was one of the leading defenders in the Premier League last season. It seems his tackling prowess even in a short period is still on display. But with him debatably not coming back from injury, Niakhate and Boly are leading the charge, but a little way back. For defenders with at least 90 mins under their belt, Filipe comes in 4th in the Premier League.
Oddly, McKenna has no registered successful tackles in 4.6 games, especially given he has a couple of successful tackles of dribblers, but he does seem to have a very low level of attempted tackles in the fbref.com data (based on Opta stats). Either way, his tackling numbers are very low.
When it comes to successfully tackling dribblers, Filipe and Niakhate lead the way, with McKenna doing well with his % success, albeit at a very low frequency (again, the data anomaly). When compared to all other Premier League defenders that have made at least 10 tackles so far this season (fbref.com has ways of working out qualifying numbers of tackles), Niakhate is 12th best. Note this does exclude van Dijk who has a 100% tackle success with 8 attempts and why Filipe does not qualify.
What is concerning here and above is Murillo's low frequency of successful tackles and less than 50% success rate of tackling dribbles.
Being dominant in the air is also very key for a central defender, and when it comes to % wins of aerial challenges, McKenna leads the way. It will be (once again) a theme that McKenna does excel at some of the more fundamental aspects of defending. For qualifying defenders (20 headers total) McKenna leads Premier League defenders (the only defender who didn't qualify but beat McKenna was Varane by 1%).
What is of note again is that if Murillo is going to start, he needs to learn to be better in the air, as a rate of less than 50% as a central defender is not good enough at this level.
Blocking is a key aspect of why Forest have been so good historically at keeping shots on target down and another one of the central defenders' core skills. The lead defender putting their body on the line is Boly, with the other defenders being roughly equal, other than surprising Worrall, who I would expect to be higher up in this category. But even Boly's heroics only have him 29th in the list of Premier League defenders. This area needs to improve.
When it comes to intercepting the ball, Boly is a clear leader amongst the central defenders at double the rate of the others, with McKenna being the best of the rest. Boly is 13th in the Premier League central defenders with at least 1 game played. The sharpness of the other central defenders needs to be worked on to cut out opponent opportunities, especially as it seems that Boly is 1st substitute behind Murillo and Niakhate at the moment.
Recovering loose balls is a key part of regaining possession cheaply and is all about sharpness (like interceptions). Filipe clearly leads the way and leads all Premier League defenders with at least 1 game played. Niakhate comes in at 25th best, so as Filipe is not likely to feature much more for Forest sadly, like with interceptions, the sharpness of the defensive unit needs to improve.
The final category is clearances. Now there is some debate about this category, and you don't see Man City hoofing the ball clear much, but there is a time and place for it. Even amongst the Forest defenders, some would rather play it out from the back (as I am sure Nuno would as well) although this is not always the best idea.
Worrall leads the rate of clearances, but all except Niakhate and Filipe are about at the same level. I do think there is an element of ball playing that we see with Filipe and Niakhate that might explain the difference, but I would also expect that with Murillo, although he does have a very 'practical' gear too (and I am not sure if Opta classify his 50 yards passes as clearances!).
Worrall is 4th amongst all Premier League defenders with at least 1 game played, with Boly, Murillo and McKenna all being in the top 10. It is dangerous, but will Nuno try and stop the clearances back to the opposition and more playing out from the back? This is dangerous and will take time if we don't want to see any more calamitous mistakes.
The last element to mention, which we will be doing with each position, is if anyone has committed errors that lead to a shot. Sadly for Worrall, he is the only central defender with such stats, and his rate is 1 in the 5 games he has played.
With all these stats, a slightly crude but simple way of seeing the pecking order of the central defenders is to give 6 points for leading in a category, down to 1 point for being last in that category. based on this method, they are ordered as follows:
1st= Boly & Filipe (31 points)
3rd Niakhate (26 points)
4th McKenna (25 points)
5th Murillo (19 points)
6th Worrall (16 points)
This is likely to spark much debate. Primarily, it is clear Murillo is still a rough diamond, but he needs to learn the core of defending to make his amazing distribution and ball-carrying the factor that makes him the first name on the defensive team sheet. There is no point in having these 'value add' aspects if the basics of defending are not being excelled in. But to give flavour to this 'value add' side of his game already, each per 90 mins, he is only beaten by CHO with progressive carry distance, has a better take-on success rate than Elanga (bettered only by CHO, Origi and MGW) and has the largest number of completed long (40 yards+) passes of any outfield player.
Per my last piece, once again McKenna selectively shows his worth, and certainly over Worrall. Yes, it is not fancy defending, but many core aspects are done well (if only his rate of tackling was better). But it seems relationships with the club have soured and he is likely to be on his way to Celtic or Rangers.
Sadly the time has come for youth product and club captain Worrall to either step up or be moved on. Like Yates, he may still be able to raise his game and is likely to be given a chance by Nuno.
Even in a short period, Filipe has shown what a huge miss he is to the team. If he is permanently injured, as many of us fear, I hope that he is kept on as a coach and can teach all he knows to Murillo (and Omobamidele). As I said in my end-of-season report, if Boly can stay fit, he has a large part to play in this team and has a good shout to be a starter.
So that leaves Boly (who should have his contract extended in my opinion), Niakhate and a learning Murillo as the core of the central defensive unit going forward. Murillo will only learn and develop by playing, which seems harsh on one of Boly or Niakhate who deserve to be the starting pairing from their stats.
Nuno does want to trim the squad, but he still will likely want the formational flexibility to have a central back 2 or 3. So that means probably 5 players in this position. We have not analysed Omobamidele's stats as he has not had any Premier League minutes yet, but he is seen as the right-footed version of Murillo, so will be in the conversation from next year you would hope (or later this year if not loaned out). That leaves a spot for Worrall if he can raise his game, but I suspect that come next year Worrall will be moved on (like McKenna) and there will be 1 new face in the defensive unit, hopefully with Filipe in the dugout as the unit's coach.
Full/Wingbacks
Forest have great depth at the full/wingback position and much like the central defenders, 6 full/wingbacks have been used so far this season (in order of playing minutes): Aina, Toffolo, Aurier, Williams, Montiel and Tavares.
As it stands now, I am pretty sure there is no consensus as to who is the best left and best right back, other than we have not seen enough of Tavares to be able to make a call about him. He has played 1.1 games, so I will put him in the data, but again this needs small sample data caution as e.g. 1 successful tackle from 1 attempt in his population would give him a 100% score!
So let's dive into the data.
If we look at the defensive side of their role, we can look at the same categories as the central defenders.
Again starting with the core skill of making tackles, per 90 mins, Williams is by far the leader in the frequency he puts in successful tackles, at more than double the rate of any of the other fullbacks. Williams is 2nd for all Premier League defenders who have played at least 1 game, only beaten by Lewis Hall.
With Toffolo's resurgence, I was surprised to see him lagging behind the others, and also Aina being in 5th. But this is the first of many early signs of the player Montiel could be for Forest.
When it comes to tackling dribblers, this is more a frequent skill to deploy for fullbacks than central defenders you would think. We have the example of the very small sample of Tavares I explained in force here. But outside of this, Aina comes to the front. Using the same qualification methods as the central defenders, Aina is 14th among all Premier League defenders with at least 1 game played. Aurier is the one in this category that is lagging behind the others.
Winning headers might not be as important for fullbacks as for central defenders, but it is still important nonetheless, especially for defending set pieces. Here Williams leads again, along with Montiel. Toffolo is slightly back behind the rest. Tavares had 1 aerial duel and lost it!
Blocking even for fullbacks is very key as they are just as likely to be covering in the box when Forest are on the back foot. Here Williams is lightyears ahead of everyone, nearly double that of Toffolo in 2nd and Toffolo has double the rate of the rest. Williams has more blocks per game than any other Premier League defender who has played at least 1 game. Toffolo is 15th.
When it comes to making interceptions, once again Williams is miles ahead of the other fullbacks with a rate of more than double the rest of them. Toffolo is second again, with Montiel bringing up the rear, if we ignore Tavares (Aina, Aurier and Montiel have an interception rate of less than 1 a game, and Tavares has only played 1.1 games so it seems unfair to label him last). Williams is 3rd among all Premier League defenders with at least 1 game played.
If you are super quick at making interceptions (along with a quick brain) then you would think you are quick to make recoveries. Seems so, Williams is again leading the way, this time followed by Aurier. Oddly Toffolo, being second above, is last here. Williams is 10th among all Premier League defenders with at least 1 game played.
We are then back onto clearances and the debate about that. But Montiel is the one leading clearing the lines most frequently, closely followed by Williams and Aurier. Toffolo brings up the rear. Fullbacks are not expected to be the ones clearing most of the time, so don't lead in this category with other Premier League defenders.
Like with the central defenders, it should be noted if there are any of those key errors that have led to a shot. Sadly both Aina and Aurier have chalked up 1 each.
So if we take stock of the defensive side of the fullbacks, we can use the same very rough measure of the 1-6 scores as we did for the central defenders. That shows a clear leader in the Forest fullbacks:
1st Williams (39 points out of a max of 42!)
2nd Montiel (26 points)
3rd Aurier (25 points)
4th Aina (21 points)
5th Tavares (20 points)
6th Toffolo (17 points)
Williams has nearly a perfect score and when you see him on the pitch you can see his industry. He was in amazing form before his jaw injury last season, and it seems he is back to his best. On many of the stats, he is very near the top of all Premier League defenders. It will be interesting to see if Nuno starts him more going forward (I expect on the left) and if he can keep up these stats levels.
Montiel in a short time has shown what he can do, and a key question was could he do the defensive side of the game? It seems so.
My surprise is that Aurier is ahead of Aina, although above, we are talking fine margins in the actual stats between them. But I do see that Aina is a more rounded player, so we can see if that is shown when we look at the more attacking resources.
What is also surprising is that Toffolo has scored so low, which doesn't seem to match the perception from performances.
So moving to the more attacking side, the embodiment of a rampaging fullback (or wingback) is running up the wing with the ball. So progressive carrying of the ball is exactly what we want to see lots of.
Montiel in his few games (and against tough opposition) has shown the others how to get forward with the ball, although this is not up with the leading Premier League defenders (Murillo has more progressive yards per game). Aina does seem to show that rounded ability we hoped for, being second and Williams also has some stats of some note just behind Aina. Toffolo is in last, but from previous reports, it was noted that he seems to get up in the final third but not travelling with the ball. But let's see next...
Previously, Toffolo has been seen to be frequently in the final third of the pitch (as demonstrated by his pullback assists), but he has now fallen down the pecking order. Williams is the one popping up in the final third the most frequently, who is 28th among Premier League defenders with at least 1 game. Tavares in his 1 game was up there also frequently. Montiel and Aurier follow closely behind.
Interestingly Aina, although second at progressive carry distance, is last at touches in the final third. It seems he is taking the ball out of defence frequently but only going full forward infrequently with rampaging runs.
So it is one thing getting forward with the ball, but the next level of attacking intent is to take on opposing defenders as a full/wingback.
Interestingly in his 3.4 games, Montiel has not tried to take on any defenders. I am sure under Nuno, that might change, especially with his confidence growing after two excellent last performances. But for now, he won't be part of this flow of analysis following.
Seemingly unsurprisingly Williams leads defender take-on frequency and he is 7th among Premier League defenders with at least 1 game. Aina, when he is making his infrequent raids into the opposition third, is being very positive and taking on defenders.
When we combine the above two stats, we find that Aina is by far the most aggressive when getting into the final third. He takes on a defender every four (slightly less) visits to the final third. Williams does a little over every 6 visits, Aurier every 9 visits.
But there is little point in having all that aggression and positive intent if you can't beat the defender.
Toffolo and Tavares only have 1 successful take on, so the very small sample effect is in place and we can look past them. The good news is then Aina has the best take-on success, a little under a 50/50 success rate (44%). But some training would be good in this area as this is only 41st best with Premier League defenders with at least 1 game.
With all of the above, it works out that Aina has exactly 1 successful take-on per game, and Williams, with all his visits into the final third, manages 0.63 per game.
The final piece in the attacking puzzle is getting crosses into the box for the forwards (well, mainly for Awoniyi or Wood).
This is where we see Toffolo come back as expected, he is not one for dribbling, but when up in the final third, he gets crosses into the box frequently. Williams leads again though with all the times he is in the final third, 13th best of the Premier League defenders with at least 1 game.
In his 1.1 games, Tavares managed to cross 3 times which is not bad. Aurier and Montiel are getting crosses into the box around twice a game and Aina brings up the rear with once a game.
To give Toffolo his chance of credit and using the knowledge we have from prior analyses, is he still being productive when he gets up into the final 3rd? The simple answer is yes! He is more productive than any of the others when it comes getting crosses into the box when he gets into the final 3rd, just short of 1 cross for every 3 visits (3.3). Williams underlines his quality as being just behind Toffolo (3.6). Tavares and Auier are about the same with 5.7 and 5.8 visits per cross. Montiel crosses every 6.8 visits and Aina brings up the rear with 8.4 visits per cross.
When trying to rank the attacking side, it is a little more difficult. the scoring method does not work as well here as many of the stats follow a chain. But aggregating, Toffolo and Montiel do struggle. Toffolo doesn't dribble much with the ball which statistically is his downfall, but he is still getting in the second most crosses into the box per game (and with the most frequency when getting forward) which is a key attacking value. Montiel has not taken on any defenders, which scores him last in half of stats above, but he is by far the most progressive with the ball at his feet, which again is a very positive trait (and passes in-field to the like of MGW are just as valuable).
But once again, Williams comes out on top looking across the board as the most rounded and excelling attacker. We have seen the logical case for why Aina is great going forward in so many ways, he just needs to get a little further forward more often and then cross more or offload in-field which seems to be more of what he does currently.
Tavares with his 1.1 games is so tough to assess, but in the super small sample of data, he actually comes 2nd to Williams. This might not be a surprise as he was deployed further forward playing for Benfica and Marseille.
The one person not mentioned yet is Aurier who comes 4th in every attacking category. As such, it is not slight adjustments to his game to make him cruse upwards in his attacking value, or with a key attacking attribute that his game can be built around.
If we combine the defensive and attacking aspects, Williams comes out as the clear leading fullback. Hopefully, he is given more than the 5 games thus far this season.
I am very interested to see Montiel under Nuno, as we have already seen the potential going forward and his defensive stats are second only to Williams.
For me, they seem like the starting 2, Montiel on the right and Williams on the left. Aina being the all-rounder works perfectly as the first sub on the bench, with the added benefit that he is very comfortable on both sides. Any drop of form and Aina get the start. Perfect competition for places.
Given that Aurier's contract expires this summer, although he has helped Forest stay up with some great performances (which fans I am sure are so grateful for), it seems his abilities are starting to tail off, and he doesn't half wind me up not tracking back. I can see him being allowed to leave in the summer.
Toffolo has just had his contract extended and I am very happy for him. He has performed on the pitch, but I do see him as a squad player, not a starter with the talent above, but he still makes the game-day bench possibly depending on the match. Also, I see Williams being able to be shifted into midfield if needed and Toffolo can cover the left side with a good crossing outlet being supplied by him.
Tavares has not really had the game time and is on loan. His one game demonstrates some very good attacking ability, but not as strong on defence (could he be used as cover for Elanga/CHO on the left?). Nuno seems to want to give everyone a chance, but he also wants to cut the squad size. If this involves 2 players per position, a 3rd keeper, and 2 extra spaces max ideally for more youth players, then it is either Tavares or Toffolo for the final spot, and Toffolo will be on lower wages for what is a backup spot. There is also fan talk of Richards coming back to take the 4th spot next season, and this is all without a new transfer needed (although Tavares would need to be made into a permanent transfer, which does work against him).
So the fullback spot might have thrown up a few surprises for some, but what we can see is that there is enough depth here not to have to go out and buy anyone more, in my opinion.
Please check out the other articles for the rest of the team positions (to come shortly)!
Midfielders
Attacking Midfielders and Strikers
What do you think about the above stats and insights? Please leave your comments below!
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