The last time I looked at Forest performance stats was at the November break. At that stage things were looking pretty good, Cooper was still in charge and Forest were sat in 13th with 8 games gone, 9 points on the board and a respectable -2 goal difference, especially given the horrendous first set of away fixtures that were routinely lost around 5-0 in the first season back in the Premier League. But the break seems to come at the wrong time for Forest as results and performance fell off a cliff upon resumption of the league.
We now look at the performance of Forest after 20 games, Nuno Espirito Santo has been in charge for the last 3 games and Forest sit 15th in the table with 20 points and a -11 goal difference. Although the fall-off might now seem slight (about the same rate of a point per game, but a worse goal difference) the last 12 games are a tale of 2 stories. The 9 games after the November break under Copper contained 1 win and 2 draws (including a home game with Luton) and a -11 goal difference (mainly due to a 5-0 loss to Fulham that I had the extreme displeasure of attending). Nuno's 3 games in charge might have been a maximum 9 points if not for a Boly sending-off that the refereeing body has subsequently apologised for. But still, those 3 games have yielded 6 points and +2 goal difference (7 goals scored).
So this break comes with a sense of great optimism again. This set of data melds all 3 'phases' of the season so far, which includes no less than 27 players that have at least 90 minutes under their belts!
Before we lift the lid on individual player performances, we can take a look at the team stats and how they compare to their Premier League rivals now and also back in November. For these tables, for ease of visualisation, I have given the best Premier League team at a stat 20 points, and the worst 1 point.
If we start with Defensive stats, we would expect there to be a greater need to defend in the last 12 games (well 9 of the 12 under Cooper) than the first 8 games of the season, but actually as stated, many of those first 8 games were backs-to-the-wall approaches with some very tough away games. So we can probably compare like for like. Overall, defensive stats have slightly improved and I would credit this with key members of the defence coming back from injury and Murillo starting to bed in.
So it seems the rate of successful tackles are improving, the rate of blocking is greatly improved and recovering the ball has improved vs rivals. Interceptions have fallen off vs rivals though. But overall successful defensive actions have improved even though the goal difference has suffered. It may just be from the massive weight of defending for long parts of games in that 9 game period.
If we move on to possession stats, this was a weak area of the Forest game, with little done with the ball at feet vs rivals actions. This has not improved and has even fallen off further, other than a slight improvement with progressive carrying of the ball. But what we have seen under the 4-2-3-1 Nuno formation, Elanga and MGW have come alive and CHO is being started more, so this area should improve. The rate of being dispossessed is still so low and exceptional, but this may influenced by the fact that possession %s are very low so Forest don;t have the ball long enough to be dispossessed much!
Moving onto successful passing, this area of the game was very poor up to the November break vs rivals, and the story is not much better now. The positive areas are that the overall pass completion % has slightly improved (it still needs to be miles better) and Murillo's long passing has put Forest into a mid-table performance for that specific stat. Crossing into the box has vastly improved, but most likely this is to accommodate Wood's strengths, coming in for Awoniyi. But with the fullbacks being used more as wingbacks under Nuno and Elanga and CHO giving real width on the pitch, I can see crossing continuing, but with MGW back in the 10 role, passing centrally into the box should improve as well.
Moving finally to team stats for shooting, this tells an interesting story. It seems that the rate of shooting has improved, but the % getting shots on target vs rivals has fallen sharply. Clinical finishing is still very high (and looking at the strikers' section, the reason this is not scored a 20 is due to shots from others on the pitch). Forest are pretty much at net zero for 'goals - expected goals' and this has fallen a little positionally vs rivals. I expect the rate of shooting to improve under Nuno, and we have just seen the coaching with MGW's shooting paying off vs Man United. The attacking midfielders need to step up by getting more shots on target and finishing their chances.
So overall there is certainly room for improvement, but the key areas look like improving pass completion, being sharper to intercept and recover the ball better and getting a better % of shots on target. The direct use of the ball at feet under Nuno looks like it is already taking care of itself and should improve quickly.
So let's move on to looking at the players themselves and see if the stats give any surprises (and there are a few!) about the perception of value/performance and what the stats show.
Below are goalkeepers, but to get this all out quicker in the break and also not to create a document with a 40-minute read time, I have broken up the reviews into different documents. Please just click the links below for the other positions (to come shortly):
Midfielders
Attacking Midfielders and Strikers
Goalkeepers
Starting with goalkeepers, Turner has played 3 times as many minutes as Vlachodimos, but the latter has played 5 games, so enough data to provide a comparison.
Stopping shots is the bread and butter of a keeper, and Turner certainly has the edge over Vlachodimos. Turner back in Nov was actually 5th in Premier League keepers, but has fallen a little to 10th (for keepers who have played at least 5 games). Alisson leads with 77.4%, with Turner on 70.8% (dropped from 72.7% back in Nov).
Building in the difficulty of saves we look at the 'expected goals - actual goals conceded per 90 mins'. Both keepers are in deficit here, letting in more than expected, which is part of the discontent with the goalkeeping situation with Forest fans at the moment. In the chart below, the keeper wants the SMALLER segment, as the numbers are negative! Turner is markedly ahead of Vlachodimos, but at the top is Vicario who saves +0.33 more goals than expected to be let in per game, with Turner down in 18th with -0.22 per game.
The next stat may become less relevant as Nuno likes play to build up from the back, but looking at the completion rate of launching out by the keeper for passes over 40 yards, this is far closer, but Vlachodimos has the slight edge over Turner. This 46.7% completion rate of Vlachodimos puts him 1st of all Premier League keepers (Turner is only beaten by Vlachodimos and Ederson)!
But playing out from the back will bring out chilling memories for many Forest fans and how shakey Turner has looked with the ball at his feet. If we look at errors that lead to a shot, Turner has an error rate per game of 0.27 (i.e. a key error once every 4 games), whereas Vlachodimos is error-free. Saying that Turner is not the only keeper to give fans heart palpitations. Khelleher (0.5) and Fodderingham (0.3) have worse error rates (but only them).
The final stat to look at for the keepers is the 'flappy' factor, or in other words, the command of the box. Turner is clearly ahead of Vlachodimos here and is doing very well vs other Premier League keepers. His 9.5% is 5th, with Raya's 16.5% being the best.
Overall, especially as Nuno doesn't like balls out to be launched, Turner looks like the better keeper, albeit with some serious heart-in-mouth moments with the ball at his feet. But with the negative xG-G/90 stats, coupled with how Nuno wants to play out from the back, there are some valid queries if a goalkeeping upgrade is needed.
Please check out the other articles for the rest of the team positions (to come shortly)!
Midfielders
Attacking Midfielders and Strikers
What do you think about the above stats and insights? Please leave your comments below!
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