Let’s have an update on my predictions on who is going to be relegated from the Premier League.
When I looked at the fixture list back on the 24th January, I had Bournemouth and Everton as being the bottom 2. I had Leicester, West Ham and Southampton in the mix for the 18th spot.
Although very tight at the bottom, both Bournemouth and Everton are currently out of the drop zone. But will it last?
This is how things stand ahead of a key weekend (Saturday 25th February) when 4 of the bottom 9 are in action against each other:
Back in late January, I looked at the fixtures that each of the bottom 9 had against each other and this went a long way to deciding who I thought was going down. The teams positions, back 1 month ago, are the order of the teams across the top or the chart below.
Although teams have picked up some unlikely points outside of the bottom 9 fixtures already, the key is still home games against the teams around you.
What is notable is that Southampton and Wolves have already dropped one of these ‘gold dust’ home games each. But for Wolves, they were the ones to beat Southampton, so that helps balance out Wolves.
The other large take away at this stage is Leicester have navigated zero of these head-to-heads through January and February and have actually risen up the table. Palace, also in the same predicament, have stayed away from the drop zone, but the gap is closing and they have to wait to April for one of these games.
It will be every teams goal to win their home games against each other, but they will also wanting to be poaching points when facing each other away from home. So although it is not possible for all the results to be recorded, indicatively for what is plausible for each club, I have allocated a win for each home game and a draw for each away game a clubs has.
Everton only have 1 of these home games left, they are still seriously in trouble, especially as their forwards still can’t seem to score (a Grey penalty back on the 3rd Jan was the last one). All the rest of the teams have at least 3 home games left.
This weekend is key for Leeds and West Ham, as they both have 3 of these home games left, but 1 of them is this weekend, against Southampton and Forest respectively. Leeds and West Ham need to win this weekend. For Southampton and Forest, a draw will suit them fine in the grand scheme of things.
The other factor to consider is key fixture congestion. Everyone has a very congested April, but some teams have more breaks between the key games that others. In the table about, I have highlighted that Palace, Leicester and Bournemouth have 3 of these key games in 10 days! For each of them, this also includes 2 of their ‘gold dust’ home games. Fatigue and injuries may very well influence the ability to pick up home wins for these teams.
So what does this all mean?
I have run the home wins and away draws and added those points onto the current standings:
Now, what we can see is that is insanely tight at the bottom, with 1 win being the difference between last and just above the drop zone, and that goal difference may play a key part.
But one month on, I still think Everton are going down, as do I with Bournemouth (albeit split by goal difference only with Leeds) although I think they are more in the mix for 18th than down outright. Their big problem is goals, as they have only scored 3 in their last 8 games.
That already dropped home game for Southampton has put them in hot water, and I have them to be in the drop zone, but like Bournemouth more in that mix of teams just in or out. Also the fact that since the start of January in the league, only 1 goal has been scored by anyone other than Ward-Prowse (Alcaraz) is a problem for them. If he gets injured, they are as good as buried.
Leicester are not part of my consideration for 18th place anymore, but Leeds are now in that mix, along with West Ham still.
But it is so tight, in the fact that if West Ham and/or Leeds lose their home games this weekend, I think that put them respectively in to the drop zone. So I will revisit things after the March games and see if anything has changed!
Who do you think are the 3 going down?
Comments