With three games left, we are really now down the 'business end' of the Premiership season.
After a truly bonkers Monday of football, with 21 goals scored across 3 games involving Leicester, Everton, Forest and Southampton, the outlook at the bottom of the table has significantly changed.
The Forest vs Southampton game was rightly touted as critical by pundits, and with Forest winning, Southampton have been left 8 points off Everton in 17th place, with a vastly inferior goal difference. With only 9 possible points left for them to win, they are all bar mathematically relegated. Noises from the club regarding their transition agenda confirm that.
The other huge winner, along with Forest, from that crazy day was Everton, with a hugely unpredicted 5-1 win at high-flying Brighton. No one saw that one coming and provided Everton with a lifeline.
Forest fired themselves up. The Toffees unstuck themselves. The Foxes looked toothless and without a cunning plan.
Bournemouth and West Ham have found cracking form over April which has put them pretty much safe as houses from the drop. The odds of them going down are so short, quite rightly. Bournemouth are 9 points clear of 18th place (albeit with a poor goal difference) and West Ham are 7 points clear of 18th and have the best goal difference of all down the bottom of the table. West Ham however are still highly relevant to the relegation discussion, as their last two games are vs Leeds and then Leicester.
So we are left with 4 teams fighting to avoid the last two relegation spots:
Forest (33 pts, -31 goal difference)
Everton (32 points, -21 goal difference)
Leicester (30 points, -15 goal difference)
Leeds (30 points, -25 goal difference)
Forest may be sitting on top of the pile at the moment, but their goal difference is a huge problem and effectively is 1 less point.
Trying to predict any results in these last three games is very difficult, as we have seen with many a result recently (Everton a point in case), but we can try to figure out what is likely (like the bookies do).
Leeds remaining fixtures:
Newcastle (H) - Newcastle need to win to keep Champions League qualification hopes alive, zero points.
West Ham (A) - West Ham are now pretty safe and have European games they are focussing on, with their 2nd leg vs AZ only 3 days before this one. Leeds have only won 2 games away from home all season, but against a tired West Ham with no skin in the game, 3 points are possible, but a point is more likely.
Spurs (H) - With European qualification places 'paying out' down to 7th place, Spurs might still be fighting with Brighton and Villa for the 6th and 7th place finishes. If they are, even at home this will be tough to get anything from. But if Spurs are set for Europe already, they might put in one of their more abject performances and anything is possible on the final day of the season. Maybe 1 point.
Points - maximum 6, optimistic 4 but more likely 2 points.
Leicester remaining fixtures:
Liverpool (H) - Liverpool have won 6 in a row and now Champions League qualification hopes are realistic, zero points.
Newcastle (A) - Even worse than Leeds' chances given this is away, zero points.
West Ham (H) - As with Leeds, this is a wild card. West Ham might be fighting for a UEFA Conference League title, but the final is over a week after this game. So they will be more rested than vs Leeds. But Leicester are at home, and by now West Ham will very likely be fully safe from the drop, so will not want to risk key players if they make the final. Ripe for 3 points.
Points - maximum 3 and likely 3 points as well.
Everton remaining fixtures:
Man City (H) - Even with the Real Madrid fixtures book ending this, Man City's depth in their squad and no room for error in the title race means not really a chance, zero points.
Wolves (A) - Wolves only last week became safe from the drop, but their home form is very strong with 4 wins from their last 4 home games over Chelsea, Brentford, Palace and Villa. The issue is the Brighton result. Was that a flash in the pan or a rebirth of belief and form? Maybe 1 point.
Bournemouth (H) - As with the Wolves game, we don't know which Everton will turn up, and Bournemouth also only last week became safe from the drop. Everton are at home, but Bournemouth have won their last 3 away from home. Add in the last day of the season randomness. Maybe all 3 points.
Points - maximum 6, optimistic 6, likely 4 points.
Forest remaining fixtures:
Chelsea (A) - Until last week, anyone going to Chelsea would have fancied getting 3 points. But a more settled and proper starting XI for Chelsea saw them back to winning ways. Forest's away form is terrible but ran Liverpool and Brentford very close in their last two away outings. Maybe 1 point.
Arsenal (H) - There is no way that Arsenal can be out of the title race by this fixture, zero points (and note this is Forest's only home fixture, all the other 3 have 2 home fixtures each).
Palace (A) - Palace also just reached safety last week, but after a superb run of form upon Hodgson's arrival, results have tailed off a little. Everton managed a draw at Palace four games ago. Add in the last game of the season syndrome and Forest's passion to survive after 23 years out of the Premiership, anything could happen. Likely 1 point.
Points - maximum 6, optimistic 4, likely 1 point.
So how does this all hypothetically shake out then come the end of the season, based on the likely outcomes above:
Everton 36 points
Forest 34 points
Leicester 33 points
Leeds 32 points
Given the variability in the likely vs optimistic thoughts above, Everton look safe and Leeds look relegated. It will highly be the final game of the season to determine who goes down between Forest and Leicester, the Midlands rivals. It could come down simply to Forest's poor goal difference.
What a cracking season at the top and the bottom of the Premiership it has been for the neutral, but unbelievably gut-wrenching for the supporters involved. This is football at its best.
Comments